Bear Creek Eviction Risk: Moderate , Murrieta

The score leans hardest on supply constraint at 10/10. At $3,501 a month, rents run 47% over what the rest of Murrieta commands. The voucher gap is 51.8%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.

Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1.3/10. Severe burden reaches 18%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.

It sits 1.4 points below the Riverside County average of 6.6. Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.8/10. Food insecurity runs 10.4% against 17.8% nationally.

That is riskier than roughly 65% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Only 13% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 2.2/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Statewide the CA average is 7.5, so this tract runs 2.3 points cooler. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.