Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #5,153 of 84,120 nationally
Downtown Carlsbad Eviction Risk: High
Tract 06073017902 · San Diego, CA · pop 3,089 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
Tract 06073017902 sits in the Downtown Carlsbad eviction risk area of Carlsbad eviction risk, CA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 8.6/10. The severe-burden share is 57%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
8.6
High
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 35%
Stable renters 14%
Owners 51%
Tract context
Occupied units1,303
Renter share49.2%
SVI overall0.75
Poverty rate22.6%
Median income$72,863
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
72
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
74
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Carlsbad and the region
Centroid at 33.1518, -117.3400 · click any tract to drill in
Why Downtown Carlsbad scores 8.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Carlsbad
6.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.1
State political climate
California legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
22.6% poverty · this tract
5.7
Supply constraint
$2,397 rent vs county FMR
3.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Carlsbad
8.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Carlsbad
7.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Carlsbad
6.1
How Downtown Carlsbad compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 75
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 93%Socioeconomic
- 44%Household composition
- 76%Racial/ethnic minority
- 41%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Downtown Carlsbad. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 18.1%Housing insecurity
- 10.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 22.2%Food insecurity
- 24.9%SNAP enrollment
- 11.7%Transit barriers
- 10.6%No health insurance
- 19.5%Frequent mental distress
- 32.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Downtown Carlsbad
72% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly above the San Diego County average of 52.5%. Set annual rent against average income of $72,863 and the ratio lands at 39%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. The score leans hardest on rent-regulation exposure at 8.1/10.
On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 7.6/10. The poverty rate is 23%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.
SNAP participation runs 24.9% against 15.2% nationally. Against the San Diego County average of 7.6, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.0 points.
Running cool, court filing pressure reads 2.7/10. At $2,397 a month, rents run 15% under what the rest of Carlsbad commands. On the national scale it lands near the 94th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 7.7/10. Statewide the CA average is 7.5, so this tract runs 1.1 points hotter.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 06073017902
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06073017902?
Census tract 06073017902 in the Downtown Carlsbad neighborhood scores 8.6/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 06073017902?
Median gross rent is $2,397/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 72% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 06073017902?
22.6% of residents in tract 06073017902 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,089.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 06073017902?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 75th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 93th, household 44th, minority 76th, housing 41th.
Q5
Is tract 06073017902 considered part of Downtown Carlsbad?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06073017902 fall within Downtown Carlsbad (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 06073017902 struggle to pay rent?
About 18.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 06073017902 compare to Carlsbad overall?
Tract 06073017902 scores 8.6/10, higher than the parent city of Carlsbad at 7.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Carlsbad eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Carlsbad
Top eight tracts in Carlsbad ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · CA
Downtown Carlsbad
7.9
/ 10 · High
Tract · CA
The Knolls of Calavera Hills
7.2
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · CA
Downtown Carlsbad
7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · CA
Pavoreal
6.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · CA
Pavoreal
6.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · CA
Poinsettia
6.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · CA
South Oceanside
6.5
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · CA
Seagate
6.3
/ 10 · Elevated
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