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Neighborhood · Ranked #1 of 84,120 nationally

Shelltown Eviction Risk: High , San Diego

Tract 06073003901 · San Diego, CA · pop 4,375 · neighborhood within 1.5 mi

Tract 06073003901 sits in the Shelltown area of San Diego eviction risk, CA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 9.9/10. It is home to 4,375 residents. 30% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Risk score
9.9
High
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 42% Stable renters 30% Owners 28%
Tract context
Occupied units1,068
Renter share71.6%
SVI overall0.91
Poverty rate18.2%
Median income$67,459

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
83 th percentile
Rank, 83rd percentileLowHigh
#3 of 13 tracts In Shelltown
High
Within parent city
96 th percentile
Rank, 96th percentileLowHigh
#14 of 328 tracts In San Diego
Very High
Within county
95 th percentile
Rank, 95th percentileLowHigh
#40 of 736 tracts In San Diego
Very High
Within state
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 9,109 tracts In California
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across San Diego and the region

Centroid at 32.7036, -117.1268 · click any tract to drill in

Why Shelltown scores 9.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from San Diego
7.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.1
State political climate
California legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
18.2% poverty · this tract
4.6
Supply constraint
$1,806 rent vs county FMR
1.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from San Diego
8.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
8.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from San Diego
7.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from San Diego
7.5

How Shelltown compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Shelltown risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 9.99.9This tracttract 003901San Diego: 8.68.6San Diegoparent cityCounty: 7.67.6Countyavg tract in countyState: 7.57.5Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 91

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Shelltown. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Shelltown

It sits 2.3 points above the San Diego County average of 7.6. The main counterweight is supply constraint at 1.3/10.

Food insecurity runs 36.7% against 17.8% nationally. 72% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.

Annualized rent equals 32% of average household income of $67,459, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 8/10.

Sitting well above the midpoint, eviction-process difficulty reads 8/10. At $1,806 a month, rents run 22% under what the rest of San Diego commands.

58% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, above the San Diego County average of 52.5%. The poverty rate is 18%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest.

Inability to pay a utility bill runs 14.2% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 06073003901

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06073003901?

Census tract 06073003901 in the Shelltown neighborhood scores 9.9/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 06073003901?

Median gross rent is $1,806/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 58% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 06073003901?

18.2% of residents in tract 06073003901 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,375.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 06073003901?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 91th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 97th, household 56th, minority 95th, housing 76th.
Q5

Is tract 06073003901 considered part of Shelltown?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06073003901 fall within Shelltown (neighborhood centroid within 1.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 06073003901 struggle to pay rent?

About 30.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 14.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 06073003901 compare to San Diego overall?

Tract 06073003901 scores 9.9/10, higher than the parent city of San Diego at 8.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from San Diego eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8

Was tract 06073003901 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 100% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in San Diego

Top eight tracts in San Diego ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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