Neighborhood · Ranked #1 of 84,120 nationally

Shelltown Eviction Risk: High , San Diego

Tract 06073003303 · San Diego, CA · pop 4,536 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi

With a score of 9.9/10, tract 06073003303 in the Shelltown area of San Diego, CA reads high for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 4,536 residents. The severe-burden share is 33%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score

9.9

High

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 38% Stable renters 30% Owners 32%

Tract context

Occupied units1,401

Renter share67.6%

SVI overall0.93

Poverty rate17.2%

Median income$57,699

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across San Diego and the region

Centroid at 32.6928, -117.0986 · click any tract to drill in

Why Shelltown scores 9.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from San Diego

7.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.1

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

17.2% poverty · this tract

4.3

Supply constraint

$1,713 rent vs county FMR

1.0

Rent control risk

Inherited from San Diego

8.0

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

8.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from San Diego

7.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from San Diego

7.5

How Shelltown compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 93

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

92%Socioeconomic
83%Household composition
91%Racial/ethnic minority
83%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
0%Grade C
25%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Shelltown. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

25.8%Housing insecurity
12.0%Utility-shutoff threat
30.7%Food insecurity
27.9%SNAP enrollment
14.8%Transit barriers
18.3%No health insurance
19.1%Frequent mental distress
32.1%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Shelltown

The main counterweight is supply constraint at 1/10. Against the San Diego County average of 7.6, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.3 points.

Set annual rent against average income of $57,699 and the ratio lands at 36%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. 68% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. Average gross rent is $1,713, 26% below the San Diego average.

Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 8/10. Food insecurity runs 30.7% against 17.8% nationally. On the high side, eviction-process difficulty reads 8/10.

Housing insecurity runs 25.8% against 14.2% nationally. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground D ("Hazardous"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. Nationally it ranks #1 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 9.4/10. Statewide the CA average is 7.5, so this tract runs 2.4 points hotter.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 06073003303

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06073003303?

Census tract 06073003303 in the Shelltown neighborhood scores 9.9/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06073003303?

Median gross rent is $1,713/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 56% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06073003303?

17.2% of residents in tract 06073003303 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,536.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06073003303?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 93th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 92th, household 83th, minority 91th, housing 83th.

Is tract 06073003303 considered part of Shelltown?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06073003303 fall within Shelltown (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 06073003303 struggle to pay rent?

About 25.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 12.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06073003303 compare to San Diego overall?

Tract 06073003303 scores 9.9/10, higher than the parent city of San Diego at 8.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from San Diego eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 06073003303 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 25% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in San Diego

Top eight tracts in San Diego ranked by composite eviction-risk score.