Neighborhood · Ranked #16,571 of 84,120 nationally

Downtown Carlsbad Eviction Risk: Elevated

Tract 06073017809 · San Diego, CA · pop 2,359 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi

With a score of 6.3/10, tract 06073017809 in the Downtown Carlsbad area of Carlsbad, CA reads elevated for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 2,359 residents. 28% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Risk score

6.3

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 13% Stable renters 12% Owners 75%

Tract context

Occupied units894

Renter share24.6%

SVI overall0.18

Poverty rate4.5%

Median income$114,500

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Carlsbad and the region

Centroid at 33.1575, -117.3267 · click any tract to drill in

Why Downtown Carlsbad scores 6.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Carlsbad

6.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.1

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

4.5% poverty · this tract

1.1

Supply constraint

$2,365 rent vs county FMR

3.2

Rent control risk

Inherited from Carlsbad

8.1

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

6.1

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Carlsbad

7.6

Housing court bias

Inherited from Carlsbad

6.1

How Downtown Carlsbad compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 18

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

21%Socioeconomic
17%Household composition
41%Racial/ethnic minority
27%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Downtown Carlsbad. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

7.3%Housing insecurity
3.8%Utility-shutoff threat
6.9%Food insecurity
6.4%SNAP enrollment
4.8%Transit barriers
3.8%No health insurance
14.5%Frequent mental distress
22.8%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Downtown Carlsbad

The main counterweight is economic stress at 1.1/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.1/10. It sits 1.3 points below the San Diego County average of 7.6.

Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 7.6/10. SNAP participation runs 6.4% against 15.2% nationally. At $2,365 a month, rents run 16% under what the rest of Carlsbad commands.

Inability to pay a utility bill runs 3.8% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. That is riskier than roughly 80% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. At 25% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.

CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 2.6/10. Statewide the CA average is 7.5, so this tract runs 1.2 points cooler.

Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 06073017809

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06073017809?

Census tract 06073017809 in the Downtown Carlsbad neighborhood scores 6.3/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06073017809?

Median gross rent is $2,365/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 53% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06073017809?

4.5% of residents in tract 06073017809 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,359.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06073017809?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 18th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 21th, household 17th, minority 41th, housing 27th.

Is tract 06073017809 considered part of Downtown Carlsbad?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06073017809 fall within Downtown Carlsbad (neighborhood centroid within 1.3 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 06073017809 struggle to pay rent?

About 7.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06073017809 compare to Carlsbad overall?

Tract 06073017809 scores 6.3/10, lower than the parent city of Carlsbad at 7.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Carlsbad eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Carlsbad

Top eight tracts in Carlsbad ranked by composite eviction-risk score.