Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #11,988 of 84,120 nationally
Ellwood Eviction Risk: Elevated , Goleta
Tract 06083002934 · Santa Barbara, CA · pop 3,597 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
With a score of 7.2/10, tract 06083002934 in the Ellwood area of Goleta, CA reads elevated for landlord eviction risk. The severe-burden share is 30%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
7.2
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 20%
Stable renters 24%
Owners 56%
Tract context
Occupied units1,460
Renter share44.0%
SVI overall0.62
Poverty rate19.9%
Median income$121,513
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
86
th percentile
High
Within county
60
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
46
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Goleta and the region
Centroid at 34.4276, -119.8941 · click any tract to drill in
Why Ellwood scores 7.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Goleta
6.9
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.6
State political climate
California legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
19.9% poverty · this tract
5.0
Supply constraint
$2,264 rent vs county FMR
2.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Goleta
6.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Goleta
9.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Goleta
6.1
How Ellwood compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 62
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 51%Socioeconomic
- 4%Household composition
- 70%Racial/ethnic minority
- 99%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Ellwood. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.5%Housing insecurity
- 6.9%Utility-shutoff threat
- 15.5%Food insecurity
- 13.7%SNAP enrollment
- 8.7%Transit barriers
- 8.3%No health insurance
- 16.8%Frequent mental distress
- 29.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Ellwood
The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 9/10. Well under the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 1.8/10.
45% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, lower than the Santa Barbara County average of 51.2%. The poverty rate is 20%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 2.5/10.
That is riskier than roughly 86% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 6.5/10. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.
It tracks the Santa Barbara County average of 7.0 closely. Average gross rent is $2,264, close to the Goleta average. Annual rent works out to 22% of average household income of $121,513.
44% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 06083002934
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06083002934?
Census tract 06083002934 in the Ellwood neighborhood scores 7.2/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 06083002934?
Median gross rent is $2,264/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 45% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 06083002934?
19.9% of residents in tract 06083002934 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,597.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 06083002934?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 62th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 51th, household 4th, minority 70th, housing 99th.
Q5
Is tract 06083002934 considered part of Ellwood?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06083002934 fall within Ellwood (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 06083002934 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 06083002934 compare to Goleta overall?
Tract 06083002934 scores 7.2/10, right in line with the parent city of Goleta at 7.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Goleta; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Goleta
Top eight tracts in Goleta ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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