Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #24,926 of 84,120 nationally
Ellwood Eviction Risk: Moderate , Goleta
Tract 06083002935 · Santa Barbara, CA · pop 3,087 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
Eviction risk in the Ellwood neighborhood of Goleta centers on tract 06083002935, which scores 5/10 (Moderate tier) and is home to 3,087 residents. It lands near the 58th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
53% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 32% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $2,281 a month while the average household earns $95,150 a year, roughly 29% of income at the averages. About 71% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 38%
Stable renters 33%
Owners 29%
Tract context
Occupied units1,322
Renter share70.6%
SVI overall0.68
Poverty rate8.4%
Median income$95,150
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
71
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
39
th percentile
Low
Within state
39
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Goleta and the region
Centroid at 34.4269, -119.8794 · click any tract to drill in
Why Ellwood scores 5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Goleta
6.9
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.6
State political climate
California legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
8.4% poverty · this tract
2.1
Supply constraint
$2,281 rent vs county FMR
2.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Goleta
6.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Goleta
9.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Goleta
6.1
How Ellwood compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 68
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 72%Socioeconomic
- 14%Household composition
- 59%Racial/ethnic minority
- 86%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Ellwood. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.9%Housing insecurity
- 7.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 14.9%Food insecurity
- 13.1%SNAP enrollment
- 8.6%Transit barriers
- 8.9%No health insurance
- 16.9%Frequent mental distress
- 26.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Ellwood
The heaviest input here is tenant organizing strength at $1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Goleta, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Santa Barbara County average of 5.5 and below the California statewide average of 6.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 12.9% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 7.0% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
The tract is White and Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 68th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 06083002935
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06083002935?
Census tract 06083002935 in the Ellwood neighborhood scores 5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 06083002935?
Median gross rent is $2,281/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 53% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 06083002935?
8.4% of residents in tract 06083002935 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,087.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 06083002935?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 68th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 72th, household 14th, minority 59th, housing 86th.
Q5
Is tract 06083002935 considered part of Ellwood?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06083002935 fall within Ellwood (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 06083002935 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 06083002935 compare to Goleta overall?
Tract 06083002935 scores 5/10, lower than the parent city of Goleta at 7.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Goleta; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Goleta
Top eight tracts in Goleta ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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