Shackelford Eviction Risk: High , Modesto

SNAP participation runs 46.1% against 15.2% nationally. The score leans hardest on economic stress at 9.6/10. The poverty rate is 38%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

26% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Annualized rent equals 38% of average household income of $38,214, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. Disability prevalence runs 48.3% against 31.5% nationally.

70% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. Sitting well above the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.3/10.

Average gross rent is $1,225, 28% below the Modesto average. Against the Stanislaus County average of 6.5, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.6 points.

Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.9/10. On the national scale it lands near the 91st percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.