Census Tract · Ranked #8,653 of 84,120 nationally

Modesto Eviction Risk: Elevated

Tract 06099001001 · Stanislaus, CA · pop 6,219

Census tract 06099001001 covers part of Modesto, CA, and scores 7.9/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 6,219. The severe-burden share is 32%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score

7.9

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 31% Stable renters 19% Owners 50%

Tract context

Occupied units2,472

Renter share50.8%

SVI overall0.64

Poverty rate20.5%

Median income$67,395

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Modesto and the region

Centroid at 37.6593, -120.9658 · click any tract to drill in

Why Modesto scores 7.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Modesto

5.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.0

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

20.5% poverty · this tract

5.1

Supply constraint

$1,364 rent vs county FMR

3.7

Rent control risk

Inherited from Modesto

7.9

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

6.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Modesto

8.3

Housing court bias

Inherited from Modesto

7.0

How Modesto compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 64

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

60%Socioeconomic
41%Household composition
66%Racial/ethnic minority
70%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

15.3%Housing insecurity
8.6%Utility-shutoff threat
18.3%Food insecurity
18.6%SNAP enrollment
10.3%Transit barriers
10.7%No health insurance
18.9%Frequent mental distress
36.7%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Modesto

Cost burden runs 62% here against 47.5% across Stanislaus County. The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 8.3/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.9/10.

It sits 1.4 points above the Stanislaus County average of 6.5. At $1,364 a month, rents run 19% under what the rest of Modesto commands. The poverty rate is 21%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

Running hot, housing-court posture reads 7/10. On the national scale it lands near the 90th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 6.7/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Annual rent works out to 24% of average household income of $67,395.

51% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 06099001001

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06099001001?

Census tract 06099001001 in Modesto scores 7.9/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06099001001?

Median gross rent is $1,364/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 62% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06099001001?

20.5% of residents in tract 06099001001 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,219.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06099001001?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 64th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 60th, household 41th, minority 66th, housing 70th.

What share of households in tract 06099001001 struggle to pay rent?

About 15.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06099001001 compare to Modesto overall?

Tract 06099001001 scores 7.9/10, higher than the parent city of Modesto at 6.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Modesto eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Modesto

Top eight tracts in Modesto ranked by composite eviction-risk score.