Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #947 of 84,120 nationally
Shackelford Eviction Risk: High , Modesto
Tract 06099002402 · Stanislaus, CA · pop 5,318 · neighborhood within 1.2 mi
Here is how census tract 06099002402, in the Shackelford neighborhood of Modesto eviction risk, looks to a landlord: a 7.3/10 eviction-risk score (Elevated tier) across a population of 5,318. It lands near the 98th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
About 53% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 45% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,354 monthly, set against $51,458 in average yearly household income, roughly 32% of income at the averages. About 64% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
8.6
High
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 34%
Stable renters 30%
Owners 36%
Tract context
Occupied units1,201
Renter share63.5%
SVI overall0.91
Poverty rate41.5%
Median income$51,458
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
100
th percentile
Very High
Within state
96
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Modesto and the region
Centroid at 37.6013, -121.0075 · click any tract to drill in
Why Shackelford scores 8.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Modesto
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.0
State political climate
California legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
41.5% poverty · this tract
10.0
Supply constraint
$1,354 rent vs county FMR
3.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Modesto
9.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Modesto
9.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from Modesto
9.6
How Shackelford compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 91
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 97%Socioeconomic
- 88%Household composition
- 95%Racial/ethnic minority
- 53%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Shackelford. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 34.1%Housing insecurity
- 18.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 44.3%Food insecurity
- 43.8%SNAP enrollment
- 21.9%Transit barriers
- 29.1%No health insurance
- 22.5%Frequent mental distress
- 46.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Shackelford
The score leans hardest on economic stress at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Modesto eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores well above the Stanislaus County average of 5.8 and above the California statewide average of 6.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
The tract is predominantly Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 91st percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.
In CDC survey modeling, about 34.1% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 18.7% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 06099002402
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06099002402?
Census tract 06099002402 in the Shackelford neighborhood scores 8.6/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 06099002402?
Median gross rent is $1,354/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 53% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 06099002402?
41.5% of residents in tract 06099002402 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,318.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 06099002402?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 91th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 97th, household 88th, minority 95th, housing 53th.
Q5
Is tract 06099002402 considered part of Shackelford?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06099002402 fall within Shackelford (neighborhood centroid within 1.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 06099002402 struggle to pay rent?
About 34.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 18.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 06099002402 compare to Modesto overall?
Tract 06099002402 scores 8.6/10, higher than the parent city of Modesto at 8.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Modesto eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
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