Within neighborhood
33
th percentile
Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #7,456 of 84,120 nationally
Shackelford Eviction Risk: Elevated , Modesto
Tract 06099002506 · Stanislaus, CA · pop 2,138 · neighborhood within 1.2 mi
How risky is the Shackelford area of Modesto for landlords? Census tract 06099002506 scores 6.3/10, the Elevated tier. That is riskier than about 83% of US census tracts.
About 71% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 38% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,335 monthly, set against $57,222 in average yearly household income, roughly 28% of income at the averages. Renters make up 65% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
6.5
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 46%
Stable renters 19%
Owners 35%
Tract context
Occupied units428
Renter share64.7%
SVI overall0.97
Poverty rate18.4%
Median income$57,222
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
74
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
68
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Modesto and the region
Centroid at 37.5972, -120.9860 · click any tract to drill in
Why Shackelford scores 6.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Modesto
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.0
State political climate
California legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
18.4% poverty · this tract
4.6
Supply constraint
$1,335 rent vs county FMR
3.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Modesto
8.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Modesto
9.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Modesto
6.8
How Shackelford compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 97
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 98%Socioeconomic
- 72%Household composition
- 89%Racial/ethnic minority
- 95%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Shackelford. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 30.0%Housing insecurity
- 16.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 38.8%Food insecurity
- 38.0%SNAP enrollment
- 19.7%Transit barriers
- 26.2%No health insurance
- 21.7%Frequent mental distress
- 45.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Shackelford
The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at 9.6/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Modesto eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Stanislaus County average of 5.8 and in line with the California statewide average of 6.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
The tract is predominantly Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 97th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.
In CDC survey modeling, about 30.0% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 16.4% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 06099002506
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06099002506?
Census tract 06099002506 in the Shackelford neighborhood scores 6.5/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 06099002506?
Median gross rent is $1,335/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 71% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 06099002506?
18.4% of residents in tract 06099002506 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,138.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 06099002506?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 97th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 98th, household 72th, minority 89th, housing 95th.
Q5
Is tract 06099002506 considered part of Shackelford?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06099002506 fall within Shackelford (neighborhood centroid within 1.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 06099002506 struggle to pay rent?
About 30.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 16.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 06099002506 compare to Modesto overall?
Tract 06099002506 scores 6.5/10, lower than the parent city of Modesto at 8.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Modesto eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
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