Neighborhood · Ranked #3,157 of 84,120 nationally

Shackelford Eviction Risk: Elevated , Modesto

Tract 06099002304 · Stanislaus, CA · pop 3,217 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi

Here is how census tract 06099002304, in the Shackelford neighborhood of Modesto eviction risk, looks to a landlord: a 6.2/10 eviction-risk score (Elevated tier) across a population of 3,217. On the national scale it ranks #15,937 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 47% of renter households, a severe level, and 30% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,023 monthly, set against $36,289 in average yearly household income, roughly 34% of income at the averages. About 47% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score

7.5

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 22% Stable renters 25% Owners 53%

Tract context

Occupied units803

Renter share46.6%

SVI overall0.94

Poverty rate23.0%

Median income$36,289

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Modesto and the region

Centroid at 37.6159, -120.9913 · click any tract to drill in

Why Shackelford scores 7.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Modesto

5.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.0

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

23.0% poverty · this tract

5.8

Supply constraint

$1,023 rent vs county FMR

1.5

Rent control risk

Inherited from Modesto

7.9

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

6.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Modesto

8.3

Housing court bias

Inherited from Modesto

7.0

How Shackelford compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 94

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

95%Socioeconomic
90%Household composition
88%Racial/ethnic minority
75%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Shackelford. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

35.0%Housing insecurity
20.1%Utility-shutoff threat
46.6%Food insecurity
48.2%SNAP enrollment
23.6%Transit barriers
29.4%No health insurance
23.7%Frequent mental distress
50.1%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Shackelford

The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at 8.3/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Modesto eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Stanislaus County average of 5.8 and in line with the California statewide average of 6.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 94th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

In CDC survey modeling, about 35.0% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 20.1% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 06099002304

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06099002304?

Census tract 06099002304 in the Shackelford neighborhood scores 7.5/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06099002304?

Median gross rent is $1,023/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 47% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06099002304?

23.0% of residents in tract 06099002304 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,217.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06099002304?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 94th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 95th, household 90th, minority 88th, housing 75th.

Is tract 06099002304 considered part of Shackelford?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06099002304 fall within Shackelford (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 06099002304 struggle to pay rent?

About 35.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 20.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06099002304 compare to Modesto overall?

Tract 06099002304 scores 7.5/10, lower than the parent city of Modesto at 8.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Modesto eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Modesto

Top eight tracts in Modesto ranked by composite eviction-risk score.