7 census tracts · pop 29,630 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 7.9/10
· range 6.7–9.3
Shackelford spans 7 census tracts of Modesto, CA and houses 29,630 people. Scored across those inputs it reaches 7.9/10, placing it in the Elevated tier. Against a Modesto baseline of 34.0%, 58% of renters here cross the 30%-of-income line.
Severe burden reaches 35%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears. SNAP participation is 39.9% of households versus 15.2% nationally.
The 7 tracts inside this boundary do not behave alike. Individual scores run 6.7 to 9.3, a 2.6-point gap wide enough that the area average misleads on any specific address. What pushes the score up most is tenant-organizing strength at 8.6/10. Annualized rent equals 33% of average household income here, past the 30% affordability line, which compresses the margin any screening standard has to work with.
Sitting well above the midpoint is rent-regulation exposure at 8.2/10. The poverty rate is 25%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. 17.1% of adults report being unable to pay a utility bill, against a 9.2% national figure. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.
Running hot is housing-court posture at 7.5/10. Average gross rent is $1,429, 15% below the Modesto average of $1,690.
Social vulnerability runs high at 8.9/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input. 52% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
For a specific building, read the per-tract breakdown below rather than the 7.9 headline, because the internal range is too wide to average safely. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.
Risk score
7.9
Elevated
7 tracts · population-weighted
Shackelford vs ModestoHow this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority91%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport55%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted
Eviction-adjacent indicators in Shackelford
Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.
31.3%Housing insecurity
16.9%Utility shutoff threat
40.3%Food insecurity
39.3%SNAP enrollment
26.2%No health insurance
44.8%Any disability
Frequently asked
About Shackelford
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for Shackelford?
Shackelford scores 7.9/10 (Elevated tier) across 7 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2
How does Shackelford compare to Modesto overall?
Shackelford scores 1.2 points higher than Modesto overall (6.7/10). Renters spend 58% of income on rent vs 34% citywide. Average rent: $1,429 vs $1,690.
Q3
What is the average rent in Shackelford?
Average gross rent in Shackelford is $1,429/month (pop-weighted across 7 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 58% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4
What percentage of Shackelford residents are renters?
52% of Shackelford households are renter-occupied (vs 41% in Modesto). The neighborhood has 29,630 residents.
Q5
Is Shackelford a high social-vulnerability area?
Shackelford sits in the 88th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (highly vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6
Which tracts in Shackelford have the highest eviction risk?
The highest-risk constituent tract in Shackelford is census tract 06099002402 (score 9.3/10). Across the 7 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 6.7 to 9.3, a spread of 2.6 points.
Q7
How safe is Shackelford for landlords?
Shackelford carries a elevated-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (7.9/10). Pop-weighted across 7 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Modesto as a whole (6.7/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.
Q8
What is the demographic breakdown of Shackelford?
Shackelford has 28,764 residents. Top groups: Hispanic / Latino (84.1%), White (non-Hispanic) (8%), Black (non-Hispanic) (3%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
