Neighborhood · Ranked #7,382 of 84,120 nationally

Shackelford Eviction Risk: High , Modesto

Tract 06099002200 · Stanislaus, CA · pop 5,403 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi

06099002200 is a census tract in the Shackelford area of Modesto, CA. It scores 8.1/10 for landlords. The severe-burden share is 35%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score

8.1

High

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 35% Stable renters 27% Owners 38%

Tract context

Occupied units1,519

Renter share61.6%

SVI overall0.90

Poverty rate26.4%

Median income$41,140

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Modesto and the region

Centroid at 37.6224, -121.0038 · click any tract to drill in

Why Shackelford scores 8.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Modesto

5.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.0

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

26.4% poverty · this tract

6.6

Supply constraint

$1,352 rent vs county FMR

3.6

Rent control risk

Inherited from Modesto

7.9

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

6.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Modesto

8.3

Housing court bias

Inherited from Modesto

7.0

How Shackelford compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 90

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

94%Socioeconomic
95%Household composition
90%Racial/ethnic minority
46%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Shackelford. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

30.5%Housing insecurity
16.8%Utility-shutoff threat
40.1%Food insecurity
40.0%SNAP enrollment
20.0%Transit barriers
24.9%No health insurance
22.2%Frequent mental distress
45.5%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Shackelford

Food insecurity runs 40.1% against 17.8% nationally. Annualized rent equals 39% of average household income of $41,140, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

What pushes it up most is tenant-organizing strength at 8.3/10. Housing insecurity runs 30.5% against 14.2% nationally. Against Stanislaus County at 47.5%, 57% of renters here are cost-burdened.

It sits 1.6 points above the Stanislaus County average of 6.5. The poverty rate is 26%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.9/10.

Average gross rent is $1,352, 20% below the Modesto average. On the high side, housing-court posture reads 7/10.

On the national scale it lands near the 91st percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 9.1/10.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 06099002200

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06099002200?

Census tract 06099002200 in the Shackelford neighborhood scores 8.1/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06099002200?

Median gross rent is $1,352/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06099002200?

26.4% of residents in tract 06099002200 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,403.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06099002200?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 90th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 94th, household 95th, minority 90th, housing 46th.

Is tract 06099002200 considered part of Shackelford?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06099002200 fall within Shackelford (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 06099002200 struggle to pay rent?

About 30.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 16.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06099002200 compare to Modesto overall?

Tract 06099002200 scores 8.1/10, higher than the parent city of Modesto at 6.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Modesto eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Modesto

Top eight tracts in Modesto ranked by composite eviction-risk score.