Census Tract · Ranked #19,562 of 84,120 nationally

Modesto Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 06099002803 · Stanislaus, CA · pop 3,001 · 94% of tract blocks fall in Modesto

Census tract 06099002803 belongs to Modesto in Stanislaus County, California. It is home to 3,001 residents and scores $1/10, an elevated reading for landlords. On the national scale it ranks #20,454 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 67% of renter households, a severe level, and 24% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,822 monthly, set against $74,708 in average yearly household income, roughly 29% of income at the averages. Renters make up 26% of occupied homes.

Risk score

5.4

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 17% Stable renters 9% Owners 74%

Tract context

Occupied units1,060

Renter share26.2%

SVI overall0.69

Poverty rate4.2%

Median income$74,708

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Modesto and the region

Centroid at 37.6738, -120.9179 · click any tract to drill in

Why Modesto scores 5.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Modesto

5.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.0

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

4.2% poverty · this tract

1.1

Supply constraint

$1,822 rent vs county FMR

6.6

Rent control risk

Inherited from Modesto

7.9

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

6.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Modesto

8.3

Housing court bias

Inherited from Modesto

7.0

How Modesto compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 69

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

55%Socioeconomic
99%Household composition
63%Racial/ethnic minority
32%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

12.9%Housing insecurity
7.2%Utility-shutoff threat
15.7%Food insecurity
15.9%SNAP enrollment
8.8%Transit barriers
9.6%No health insurance
17.1%Frequent mental distress
37.2%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Modesto

The heaviest input here is tenant organizing strength at 8.3/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Modesto eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Stanislaus County average of 5.8 and in line with the California statewide average of 6.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 12.9% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 7.2% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is White and Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 69th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 06099002803

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06099002803?

Census tract 06099002803 in Modesto scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06099002803?

Median gross rent is $1,822/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 67% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06099002803?

4.2% of residents in tract 06099002803 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,001.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06099002803?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 69th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 55th, household 99th, minority 63th, housing 32th.

What share of households in tract 06099002803 struggle to pay rent?

About 12.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06099002803 compare to Modesto overall?

Tract 06099002803 scores 5.4/10, lower than the parent city of Modesto at 8.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Modesto eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Modesto

Top eight tracts in Modesto ranked by composite eviction-risk score.