Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #23,911 of 84,120 nationally
Heritage Oaks Eviction Risk: Moderate , Lealman
Tract 12103024603 · Pinellas, FL · pop 3,294 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
Census tract 12103024603 covers the Heritage Oaks neighborhood of Lealman, home to 3,294 residents. For landlords it grades 5.6/10, a moderate reading. It lands near the 62nd percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
About 62% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 27% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,268 a month while the average household earns $40,873 a year, roughly 37% of income at the averages. Renters make up 38% of occupied homes.
Risk score
5.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 23%
Stable renters 14%
Owners 63%
Tract context
Occupied units1,171
Renter share37.7%
SVI overall0.96
Poverty rate22.9%
Median income$40,873
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
97
th percentile
Very High
Within state
91
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Lealman and the region
Centroid at 27.8146, -82.6693 · click any tract to drill in
Why Heritage Oaks scores 5.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Lealman
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.0
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
22.9% poverty · this tract
5.7
Supply constraint
$1,268 rent vs county FMR
1.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lealman
7.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lealman
7.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lealman
7.0
How Heritage Oaks compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 96
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 97%Socioeconomic
- 82%Household composition
- 77%Racial/ethnic minority
- 88%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 47%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 312Total filings 2020-21
- 4.3Avg monthly (observed)
- 7.5Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.57×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran far below baseline (moratorium effect). Eviction Lab tracked Tacoma, WA as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Heritage Oaks. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Heritage Oaks
The heaviest input here is tenant organizing strength at 7.8/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Lealman, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Pinellas County average of 4.8 and above the Florida statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
During 2020 and 2021, eviction filings here ran at about 0.57x the pre-COVID monthly baseline, well below the pre-pandemic norm, the signature of an eviction moratorium at work.
The tract is White and Black and ranks around the 96th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 12103024603
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12103024603?
Census tract 12103024603 in the Heritage Oaks neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 12103024603?
Median gross rent is $1,268/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 62% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 12103024603?
22.9% of residents in tract 12103024603 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,294.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 12103024603?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 96th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 97th, household 82th, minority 77th, housing 88th.
Q5
Is tract 12103024603 considered part of Heritage Oaks?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12103024603 fall within Heritage Oaks (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
Did eviction filings in tract 12103024603 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.57× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings dropped sharply, likely a moratorium effect. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Tacoma, WA), 2020-2021.
Q7
How does tract 12103024603 compare to Lealman overall?
Tract 12103024603 scores 5.4/10, higher than the parent city of Lealman at 2.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lealman; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8
Was tract 12103024603 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 47% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Lealman
Top eight tracts in Lealman ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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