Cragin Eviction Risk: High , Chicago

SNAP participation runs 37.0% against 15.2% nationally. 29% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

The main counterweight is supply constraint at 1/10. At $979 a month, rents run 32% under what the rest of Chicago commands. It sits 2.0 points above the Cook County average of 6.1.

Running hot, local political climate reads 8.5/10. The poverty rate is 27%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest.

On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 8/10. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 19.0% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. The filing record is not thin: 336 evictions over 15 years of observation.

The worst year on record was 2001, when 9.4% of renter households were served. This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Chicago. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.

In a typical year about 6.2% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 91st percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.