South Park Eviction Risk: Moderate , Aurora

The severe-burden share is 32%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Pulling hardest the other way is supply constraint at 2/10. The poverty rate is 26%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest.

At $1,227 a month, rents run 23% under what the rest of Aurora commands. Against the Kane County average of 4.1, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.3 points. Well under the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 2.5/10.

Inability to pay a utility bill runs 19.4% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. The filing record is not thin: 108 evictions over 3 years of observation. The worst year on record was 2009, when 12.5% of renter households were served.

This ground was mapped B ("Still Desirable") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Aurora. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. In a typical year about 7.3% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 70th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

Social vulnerability reads 8/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.