College Green Eviction Risk: Moderate

Pulling the other way is supply constraint, at 1.4/10. The severe-burden share is 24%. Those renters are past the 50% mark, and they miss rent for reasons that have nothing to do with willingness to pay. On the softer side is rent-regulation exposure, at 2/10.

The poverty rate is 25%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. At $1,130 a month, rents sit 17% under what the rest of Elgin commands.

The filing record is not thin: 93 evictions logged in this tract. SNAP participation is 25.1% of households versus 15.2% nationally.

Food insecurity affects 26.9% of adults, 9.1 points above the national rate. The worst year on record was 2011, when filings touched 4.2% of renter households. That places it #1 of 16 neighborhoods in Elgin.

Judgments average 2.5% of renter households a year, the share of filings that actually convert to an order. For a like-for-like read, Columbia Park and Elgin Historic District score within a fraction of it. Social vulnerability runs high at 9.7/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.

Rent takes 18% of average household income, comfortably inside the 30% line and unusually low for a rental sub-market.

One tract means one number: 5.4/10 applies directly to any address inside the boundary. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.