Columbia Park Eviction Risk: Moderate

The severe-burden share is 30%. Those renters are past the 50% mark, and they miss rent for reasons that have nothing to do with willingness to pay. Pulling the other way is rent-regulation exposure, at 2/10.

The poverty rate is 19%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than the filing statistics suggest. Well under the midpoint is supply constraint, at 2.8/10.

The filing record is not thin: 38 evictions logged in this tract. 18.4% of adults carry no health insurance against 11.3% nationally, a common route into sudden unpayable debt.

The worst year on record was 2010, when filings touched 4.6% of renter households. Recent filings have not receded much: 2.8% in 2011 against a 4.6% peak. Among the 16 mapped neighborhoods of Elgin, it ranks #1 by risk, the upper third.

At 26% renter-occupied, this is predominantly owner territory, and rental comps have to be drawn from further out. For a like-for-like read, College Green and Elgin Historic District score within a fraction of it. Social vulnerability runs high at 7.6/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.

Average gross rent runs $1,365, close to the Elgin average.

Because the boundary contains one tract, 5.4/10 is simultaneously the area figure and the address-level figure. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.