Neighborhood · Ranked #24,859 of 84,120 nationally

Downtown Rockford Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 17201002800 · Winnebago County, IL · pop 1,155 · neighborhood within 1.0 mi

Census tract 17201002800 covers part of the Downtown Rockford area of Rockford, IL, and scores 5.4/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 1,155. The severe-burden share is 57%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score

5.4

Moderate

Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 42% Stable renters 17% Owners 41%

Tract context

Occupied units482

Renter share58.5%

SVI overall0.93

Poverty rate37.9%

Median income$33,354

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Rockford and the region

Centroid at 42.2591, -89.1016 · click any tract to drill in

Why Downtown Rockford scores 5.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Rockford

4.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.1

State political climate

Illinois legislature & governorship

5.2

Economic stress

37.9% poverty · this tract

9.5

Supply constraint

$938 rent vs county FMR

2.9

Rent control risk

Inherited from Rockford

2.0

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Rockford

3.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from Rockford

3.5

How Downtown Rockford compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 93

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

99%Socioeconomic
96%Household composition
83%Racial/ethnic minority
42%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
0%Grade C
59%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Downtown Rockford. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

38.4%Housing insecurity
26.7%Utility-shutoff threat
52.3%Food insecurity
54.1%SNAP enrollment
25.1%Transit barriers
28.8%No health insurance
22.7%Frequent mental distress
47.3%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Downtown Rockford

71% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, far above the Winnebago County average of 44.4%. Food insecurity runs 52.3% against 17.8% nationally.

The dominant input is economic stress at 9.5/10. The poverty rate is 38%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest.

Adults with no health insurance runs 28.8% against 11.3% nationally. Set annual rent against average income of $33,354 and the ratio lands at 34%, above the conventional 30% ceiling.

On the softer side, rent-regulation exposure reads 2/10. Against the Winnebago County average of 4.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.1 points.

Running cool, supply constraint reads 2.9/10. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground D ("Hazardous"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. That is riskier than roughly 70% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 9.3/10. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 17201002800

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 17201002800?

Census tract 17201002800 in the Downtown Rockford neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 17201002800?

Median gross rent is $938/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 71% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 17201002800?

37.9% of residents in tract 17201002800 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,155.

How socially vulnerable is tract 17201002800?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 93th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 99th, household 96th, minority 83th, housing 42th.

Is tract 17201002800 considered part of Downtown Rockford?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 17201002800 fall within Downtown Rockford (neighborhood centroid within 1.0 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 17201002800 struggle to pay rent?

About 38.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 26.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 17201002800 compare to Rockford overall?

Tract 17201002800 scores 5.4/10, higher than the parent city of Rockford at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Rockford eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 17201002800 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 59% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Rockford

Top eight tracts in Rockford ranked by composite eviction-risk score.