Neighborhood · Ranked #24,859 of 84,120 nationally

Downtown Rockford Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 17201002600 · Winnebago County, IL · pop 3,379 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi

17201002600 is a census tract in the Downtown Rockford area of Rockford, IL. It scores 5.4/10 for landlords. It is home to 3,379 residents. The severe-burden share is 51%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score

5.4

Moderate

Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 50% Stable renters 25% Owners 25%

Tract context

Occupied units806

Renter share75.4%

SVI overall0.99

Poverty rate70.9%

Median income$15,500

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Rockford and the region

Centroid at 42.2756, -89.1027 · click any tract to drill in

Why Downtown Rockford scores 5.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Rockford

4.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.1

State political climate

Illinois legislature & governorship

5.2

Economic stress

70.9% poverty · this tract

10.0

Supply constraint

$910 rent vs county FMR

2.7

Rent control risk

Inherited from Rockford

2.0

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Rockford

3.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from Rockford

3.5

How Downtown Rockford compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 99

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

100%Socioeconomic
84%Household composition
85%Racial/ethnic minority
96%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
12%Grade C
58%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Downtown Rockford. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

48.1%Housing insecurity
41.2%Utility-shutoff threat
64.9%Food insecurity
74.4%SNAP enrollment
36.2%Transit barriers
26.0%No health insurance
28.4%Frequent mental distress
53.7%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Downtown Rockford

Cost burden runs around two-thirds here against 44.4% across Winnebago County. Annualized rent equals 70% of average household income of $15,500, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

The dominant input is economic stress at 10/10. Food insecurity runs 64.9% against 17.8% nationally. Housing insecurity runs 48.1% against 14.2% nationally.

The poverty rate is 71%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. This is renter territory: 75% of occupied units are tenant-occupied.

On the softer side, rent-regulation exposure reads 2/10. Against the Winnebago County average of 4.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.1 points. Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 2.7/10.

In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground D ("Hazardous"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 17201002600

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 17201002600?

Census tract 17201002600 in the Downtown Rockford neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 17201002600?

Median gross rent is $910/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 67% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 17201002600?

70.9% of residents in tract 17201002600 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,379.

How socially vulnerable is tract 17201002600?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 99th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 100th, household 84th, minority 85th, housing 96th.

Is tract 17201002600 considered part of Downtown Rockford?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 17201002600 fall within Downtown Rockford (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 17201002600 struggle to pay rent?

About 48.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 41.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 17201002600 compare to Rockford overall?

Tract 17201002600 scores 5.4/10, higher than the parent city of Rockford at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Rockford eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 17201002600 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 58% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Rockford

Top eight tracts in Rockford ranked by composite eviction-risk score.