Neighborhood · Ranked #24,859 of 84,120 nationally

Downtown Rockford Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 17201002500 · Winnebago County, IL · pop 2,749 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi

With a score of 5.4/10, tract 17201002500 in the Downtown Rockford area of Rockford, IL reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 2,749. The severe-burden share is 48%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score

5.4

Moderate

Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 34% Stable renters 26% Owners 40%

Tract context

Occupied units877

Renter share59.5%

SVI overall0.83

Poverty rate41.1%

Median income$37,344

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Rockford and the region

Centroid at 42.2739, -89.1185 · click any tract to drill in

Why Downtown Rockford scores 5.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Rockford

4.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.1

State political climate

Illinois legislature & governorship

5.2

Economic stress

41.1% poverty · this tract

10.0

Supply constraint

$850 rent vs county FMR

2.2

Rent control risk

Inherited from Rockford

2.0

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Rockford

3.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from Rockford

3.5

How Downtown Rockford compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 83

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

98%Socioeconomic
73%Household composition
90%Racial/ethnic minority
31%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
48%Grade C
23%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Downtown Rockford. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

37.4%Housing insecurity
27.7%Utility-shutoff threat
50.1%Food insecurity
55.1%SNAP enrollment
24.8%Transit barriers
21.2%No health insurance
23.9%Frequent mental distress
45.7%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Downtown Rockford

What pushes it up most is economic stress at 10/10. Housing insecurity runs 37.4% against 14.2% nationally.

The poverty rate is 41%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. 56% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well above the Winnebago County average of 44.4%. Disability prevalence runs 45.7% against 31.5% nationally.

On the softer side, rent-regulation exposure reads 2/10. Running cool, supply constraint reads 2.2/10. It sits 1.1 points above the Winnebago County average of 4.3.

At $850 a month, rents run 14% under what the rest of Rockford commands. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.

Nationally it ranks #24,859 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 17201002500

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 17201002500?

Census tract 17201002500 in the Downtown Rockford neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 17201002500?

Median gross rent is $850/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 56% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 17201002500?

41.1% of residents in tract 17201002500 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,749.

How socially vulnerable is tract 17201002500?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 83th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 98th, household 73th, minority 90th, housing 31th.

Is tract 17201002500 considered part of Downtown Rockford?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 17201002500 fall within Downtown Rockford (neighborhood centroid within 1.3 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 17201002500 struggle to pay rent?

About 37.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 27.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 17201002500 compare to Rockford overall?

Tract 17201002500 scores 5.4/10, higher than the parent city of Rockford at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Rockford eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 17201002500 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 23% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Rockford

Top eight tracts in Rockford ranked by composite eviction-risk score.