Neighborhood · Ranked #24,859 of 84,120 nationally

Downtown Rockford Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 17201002900 · Winnebago County, IL · pop 1,171 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi

Census tract 17201002900 covers part of the Downtown Rockford area of Rockford, IL, and scores 5.4/10 on landlord eviction risk. The score leans hardest on economic stress at 10/10.

Risk score

5.4

Moderate

Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 39% Stable renters 56% Owners 5%

Tract context

Occupied units931

Renter share94.7%

SVI overall0.82

Poverty rate44.9%

Median income$18,765

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Rockford and the region

Centroid at 42.2728, -89.0938 · click any tract to drill in

Why Downtown Rockford scores 5.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Rockford

4.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.1

State political climate

Illinois legislature & governorship

5.2

Economic stress

44.9% poverty · this tract

10.0

Supply constraint

$603 rent vs county FMR

1.0

Rent control risk

Inherited from Rockford

2.0

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Rockford

3.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from Rockford

3.5

How Downtown Rockford compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 82

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

95%Socioeconomic
58%Household composition
58%Racial/ethnic minority
58%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
8%Grade C
35%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Downtown Rockford. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

19.7%Housing insecurity
15.7%Utility-shutoff threat
30.7%Food insecurity
36.4%SNAP enrollment
14.5%Transit barriers
11.3%No health insurance
17.7%Frequent mental distress
46.3%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Downtown Rockford

The poverty rate is 45%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. 95% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.

Average gross rent is $603, 39% below the Rockford average. SNAP participation runs 36.4% against 15.2% nationally. Set annual rent against average income of $18,765 and the ratio lands at 39%, above the conventional 30% ceiling.

Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 1/10. The severe-burden share is 24%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. On the softer side, rent-regulation exposure reads 2/10.

It sits 1.1 points above the Winnebago County average of 4.3. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 15.7% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

This ground was mapped D ("Hazardous") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Rockford. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 17201002900

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 17201002900?

Census tract 17201002900 in the Downtown Rockford neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 17201002900?

Median gross rent is $603/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 41% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 17201002900?

44.9% of residents in tract 17201002900 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,171.

How socially vulnerable is tract 17201002900?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 82th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 95th, household 58th, minority 58th, housing 58th.

Is tract 17201002900 considered part of Downtown Rockford?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 17201002900 fall within Downtown Rockford (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 17201002900 struggle to pay rent?

About 19.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 15.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 17201002900 compare to Rockford overall?

Tract 17201002900 scores 5.4/10, higher than the parent city of Rockford at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Rockford eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 17201002900 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 35% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Rockford

Top eight tracts in Rockford ranked by composite eviction-risk score.