Neighborhood · Ranked #24,859 of 84,120 nationally
East Goshen Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 18039000202 ·
Elkhart County, IN · pop 3,742 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi
Tract 18039000202 sits in the East Goshen area of Goshen eviction risk, IN, carrying an eviction-risk score of 5.4/10. Population here is 3,742. The severe-burden share is 38%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
5.4
Moderate
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 18%Stable renters 22%Owners 60%
Tract context
Occupied units1,276
Renter share39.7%
SVI overall0.72
Poverty rate29.2%
Median income$56,667
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50th percentile
#1 of 1 tracts In East Goshen
Moderate
Within parent city
75th percentile
#3 of 9 tracts In Goshen
High
Within county
84th percentile
#8 of 45 tracts In Elkhart County
High
Within state
95th percentile
#93 of 1,693 tracts In Indiana
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Goshen and the region
Centroid at 41.5991, -85.7986 · click any tract to drill in
Why East Goshen scores 5.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Goshen
4.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
3.6
State political climate
Indiana legislature & governorship
2.0
Economic stress
29.2% poverty · this tract
7.3
Supply constraint
$1,140 rent vs county FMR
5.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Goshen
7.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Goshen
8.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Goshen
7.4
How East Goshen compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 72
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
71%Socioeconomic
78%Household composition
56%Racial/ethnic minority
53%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
16.7%Housing insecurity
11.9%Utility-shutoff threat
21.2%Food insecurity
12.8%SNAP enrollment
10.6%Transit barriers
15.1%No health insurance
19.3%Frequent mental distress
35.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in East Goshen
The clearest offset is eviction-process difficulty at 1.5/10. The poverty rate is 29%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.
Well under the midpoint, state political climate reads 2/10. Against the Elkhart County average of 3.9, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.5 points.
Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 8/10. That is riskier than roughly 70% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 7.4/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
Statewide the IN average is 3.9, so this tract runs 1.5 points hotter. Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured. 44% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent.
Average gross rent is $1,140, close to the Goshen average. Annual rent works out to 24% of average household income of $56,667. 40% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 18039000202
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 18039000202?
Census tract 18039000202 in the East Goshen neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 18039000202?
Median gross rent is $1,140/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 44% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 18039000202?
29.2% of residents in tract 18039000202 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,742.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 18039000202?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 72th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 71th, household 78th, minority 56th, housing 53th.
Q5
Is tract 18039000202 considered part of East Goshen?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 18039000202 fall within East Goshen (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 18039000202 struggle to pay rent?
About 16.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 11.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 18039000202 compare to Goshen overall?
Tract 18039000202 scores 5.4/10, higher than the parent city of Goshen at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Goshen eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Goshen
Top eight tracts in Goshen ranked by composite eviction-risk score.