Census Tract · Ranked #57,812 of 84,120 nationally

Goshen Eviction Risk: Lower

Tract 18039000301 · Elkhart County, IN · pop 4,230 · 54% of tract blocks fall in Goshen

Tract 18039000301 sits in Goshen eviction risk, IN, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3.5/10. Population here is 4,230. The severe-burden share is 36%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score

3.5

Lower

Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 5% Stable renters 7% Owners 88%

Tract context

Occupied units1,327

Renter share12.1%

SVI overall0.57

Poverty rate7.9%

Median income$73,938

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Goshen and the region

Centroid at 41.5372, -85.7980 · click any tract to drill in

Why Goshen scores 3.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Goshen

4.2

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

3.6

State political climate

Indiana legislature & governorship

2.0

Economic stress

7.9% poverty · this tract

2.0

Supply constraint

$1,424 rent vs county FMR

8.5

Rent control risk

Inherited from Goshen

7.3

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

1.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Goshen

8.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from Goshen

7.4

How Goshen compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 57

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

48%Socioeconomic
20%Household composition
52%Racial/ethnic minority
87%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

15.9%Housing insecurity
10.5%Utility-shutoff threat
20.4%Food insecurity
11.5%SNAP enrollment
10.0%Transit barriers
16.1%No health insurance
19.1%Frequent mental distress
37.0%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Goshen

The voucher gap is 35.0%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Pulling hardest the other way is eviction-process difficulty at 1.5/10. At $1,424 a month, rents run 30% over what the rest of Goshen commands.

Running hot, supply constraint reads 8.5/10. Running cool, state political climate reads 2/10. Cost burden runs 45% here against 40.7% across Elkhart County.

On the national scale it lands near the 31st percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. At 12% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.

Social vulnerability reads 6.1/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured. It tracks the Elkhart County average of 3.9 closely.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 18039000301

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 18039000301?

Census tract 18039000301 in Goshen scores 3.5/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 18039000301?

Median gross rent is $1,424/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 45% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 18039000301?

7.9% of residents in tract 18039000301 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,230.

How socially vulnerable is tract 18039000301?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 57th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 48th, household 20th, minority 52th, housing 87th.

What share of households in tract 18039000301 struggle to pay rent?

About 15.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 18039000301 compare to Goshen overall?

Tract 18039000301 scores 3.5/10, lower than the parent city of Goshen at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Goshen eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Goshen

Top eight tracts in Goshen ranked by composite eviction-risk score.