Holyoke Center Eviction Risk: High

The severe-burden share is 28%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. 88% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.

Annualized rent equals 42% of average household income of $23,202, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. It sits 2.2 points above the Hampden County average of 5.8. Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 1/10.

Disability prevalence runs 50.4% against 31.5% nationally. The poverty rate is 31%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.5/10. Adults with no health insurance runs 23.2% against 11.3% nationally.

At $806 a month, rents run 21% under what the rest of Holyoke commands. Against Hampden County at 46.5%, 51% of renters here are cost-burdened.

This ground was mapped D ("Hazardous") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Holyoke Chicopee. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. That is riskier than roughly 91% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

Social vulnerability reads 9.9/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.