Ames Hill-Crescent Hill Historic District Eviction Risk: Elevated , Springfield

The poverty rate is 51%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. The severe-burden share is 30%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Annualized rent equals 43% of average household income of $23,750, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

88% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 29.5% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. Disability prevalence runs 50.9% against 31.5% nationally.

On the softer side, supply constraint reads 1/10. It sits 2.1 points above the Hampden County average of 5.8. Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.5/10.

Against Hampden County at 46.5%, 56% of renters here are cost-burdened. At $850 a month, rents run 26% under what the rest of Springfield commands.

On the national scale it lands near the 90th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Social vulnerability reads 9.8/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

Statewide the MA average is 6.2, so this tract runs 1.7 points hotter.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.