Ames Hill-Crescent Hill Historic District Eviction Risk: Elevated

56% of renters here are cost-burdened at the 30% threshold, well clear of the Springfield rate of 35.3%. SNAP participation is 53.5% of households versus 15.2% nationally. The poverty rate is 38%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

The strongest single driver of the headline number is economic stress at 9/10. Set annual rent against average household income of $40,367 and the ratio lands at 34%, above the conventional 30% ceiling.

69% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building two streets over. Well under the midpoint is supply constraint, at 2.7/10. 19.2% of adults carry no health insurance against 11.3% nationally, a common route into sudden unpayable debt.

Sitting well above the midpoint is eviction-process difficulty at 7/10. Among the 13 mapped neighborhoods of Springfield, it ranks #1 by risk, the upper third. The closest comparables inside the same city are Forest Park and Quadrangle-Mattoon Street Historic District.

Social vulnerability runs high at 9.1/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input. The 6 tracts here are tightly clustered, 0 points apart at the extremes.

Average gross rent runs $1,142, close to the Springfield average.

With little internal variation, 7.9/10 is a fair proxy for any address inside the boundary. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.