Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #2,657 of 84,120 nationally
Lower Mills Eviction Risk: High , Boston
Tract 25025101002 · Suffolk County, MA · pop 6,256 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi
Census tract 25025101002 covers part of the Lower Mills area of Boston, MA, and scores 9.5/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 6,256. The severe-burden share is 39%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
9.5
High
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 53%
Stable renters 24%
Owners 23%
Tract context
Occupied units2,366
Renter share76.6%
SVI overall0.98
Poverty rate25.8%
Median income$48,667
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
81
th percentile
High
Within county
93
th percentile
Very High
Within state
99
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Boston and the region
Centroid at 42.2741, -71.0853 · click any tract to drill in
Why Lower Mills scores 9.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Boston
8.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.2
State political climate
Massachusetts legislature & governorship
6.2
Economic stress
25.8% poverty · this tract
6.5
Supply constraint
$1,395 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Boston
8.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
8.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Boston
8.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Boston
8.0
How Lower Mills compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 98
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 80%Socioeconomic
- 100%Household composition
- 95%Racial/ethnic minority
- 95%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 1%Grade B
- 99%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 610Total filings over 5 yrs
- 8.43%Avg annual filing rate
- 10.3%Peak (2013)
- 126Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 59% over the past 5 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 222Total filings 2020-21
- 4.7Avg monthly (observed)
- 10.1Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.47×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran far below baseline (moratorium effect). Eviction Lab tracked Boston, MA as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Lower Mills. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 29.2%Housing insecurity
- 21.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 34.7%Food insecurity
- 44.0%SNAP enrollment
- 19.1%Transit barriers
- 8.9%No health insurance
- 19.7%Frequent mental distress
- 37.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Lower Mills
69% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well clear of the Suffolk County average of 47.0%. SNAP participation runs 44.0% against 15.2% nationally.
The clearest offset is supply constraint at 1/10. Average gross rent is $1,395, 35% below the Boston average. 77% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.
Set annual rent against average income of $48,667 and the ratio lands at 34%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. On the high side, local political climate reads 8.5/10. Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.5/10.
Housing insecurity runs 29.2% against 14.2% nationally. It sits 1.6 points above the Suffolk County average of 7.9. The poverty rate is 26%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.
The filing record is not thin: 610 evictions over 5 years of observation. The worst year on record was 2013, when 10.3% of renter households were served.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 25025101002
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 25025101002?
Census tract 25025101002 in the Lower Mills neighborhood scores 9.5/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 25025101002?
Median gross rent is $1,395/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 69% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 25025101002?
25.8% of residents in tract 25025101002 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,256.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 25025101002?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 98th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 80th, household 100th, minority 95th, housing 95th.
Q5
Is tract 25025101002 considered part of Lower Mills?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 25025101002 fall within Lower Mills (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 25025101002?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 610 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 25025101002 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 8.43% of renter households, peaking at 10.3% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 25025101002 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.47× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings dropped sharply, likely a moratorium effect. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Boston eviction risk, MA), 2020-2021.
Q8
What share of households in tract 25025101002 struggle to pay rent?
About 29.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 21.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q9
How does tract 25025101002 compare to Boston overall?
Tract 25025101002 scores 9.5/10, higher than the parent city of Boston at 8.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Boston eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q10
Was tract 25025101002 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Boston
Top eight tracts in Boston ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · MA
Frederick Douglass Square Historic District
9.5
/ 10 · Very High
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Mount Bowdoin
9.5
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · MA
Church Green
9.5
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · MA
Brookline Village
9.5
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · MA
Grove Hall
9.5
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · MA
Dorchester Heights
9.5
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · MA
Frederick Douglass Square Historic District
9.5
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · MA
Ashmont
9.5
/ 10 · Very High
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