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Neighborhood · Ranked #5,690 of 84,120 nationally

Main South Eviction Risk: Elevated , Worcester

Tract 25027731300 · Worcester County, MA · pop 5,118 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi

With a score of 7.2/10, tract 25027731300 in the Main South neighborhood of Worcester ranks in the Elevated tier for landlord eviction risk. The tract is home to 5,118 residents. That is riskier than about 97% of US census tracts.

About 52% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 26% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,338 monthly, set against $41,723 in average yearly household income, roughly 38% of income at the averages. About 91% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
6.8
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 48% Stable renters 44% Owners 8%
Tract context
Occupied units1,752
Renter share91.4%
SVI overall0.99
Poverty rate35.0%
Median income$41,723

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Main South
Very High
Within parent city
87 th percentile
Rank, 87th percentileLowHigh
#7 of 46 tracts In Worcester
High
Within county
97 th percentile
Rank, 97th percentileLowHigh
#7 of 191 tracts In Worcester County
Very High
Within state
96 th percentile
Rank, 96th percentileLowHigh
#63 of 1,613 tracts In Massachusetts
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Worcester and the region

Centroid at 42.2514, -71.8152 · click any tract to drill in

Why Main South scores 6.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Worcester
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Massachusetts legislature & governorship
6.2
Economic stress
35.0% poverty · this tract
8.7
Supply constraint
$1,338 rent vs county FMR
2.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Worcester
6.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
7.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Worcester
7.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Worcester
7.0

How Main South compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Main South risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 6.86.8This tracttract 731300Worcester: 6.46.4Worcesterparent cityCounty: 3.63.6Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.53.5Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 99

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 161Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 12.88%Avg annual filing rate
  • 12.9%Peak (2015)
  • 161Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Main South. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Main South

What moves this score most is economic stress at 8.7/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Worcester eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Worcester County average of 6.0 and above the Massachusetts statewide average of 5.9. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 30.4% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 21.1% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is racially mixed and ranks around the 99th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 25027731300

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 25027731300?

Census tract 25027731300 in the Main South neighborhood scores 6.8/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 25027731300?

Median gross rent is $1,338/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 52% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 25027731300?

35.0% of residents in tract 25027731300 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,118.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 25027731300?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 99th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 97th, household 96th, minority 87th, housing 93th.
Q5

Is tract 25027731300 considered part of Main South?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 25027731300 fall within Main South (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 25027731300?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 161 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 25027731300 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 12.88% of renter households, peaking at 12.9% in 2015. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 25027731300 struggle to pay rent?

About 30.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 21.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 25027731300 compare to Worcester overall?

Tract 25027731300 scores 6.8/10, higher than the parent city of Worcester at 6.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Worcester eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Worcester

Top eight tracts in Worcester ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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