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Neighborhood · Ranked #5,198 of 84,120 nationally

Morningdale Eviction Risk: Elevated , Worcester

Tract 25027732001 · Worcester County, MA · pop 3,829 · neighborhood within 1.0 mi

Tract 25027732001 covers Morningdale in Worcester in Massachusetts. Home to 3,829 residents, it scores $1/10 on landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than about 94% of US census tracts.

About 41% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 12% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $713 monthly, set against $32,952 in average yearly household income, roughly 26% of income at the averages. Renters make up 96% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
6.9
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 39% Stable renters 57% Owners 4%
Tract context
Occupied units1,318
Renter share95.5%
SVI overall0.96
Poverty rate57.6%
Median income$32,952

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Morningdale
Very High
Within parent city
89 th percentile
Rank, 89th percentileLowHigh
#6 of 46 tracts In Worcester
High
Within county
98 th percentile
Rank, 98th percentileLowHigh
#4 of 191 tracts In Worcester County
Very High
Within state
97 th percentile
Rank, 97th percentileLowHigh
#52 of 1,613 tracts In Massachusetts
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Worcester and the region

Centroid at 42.3076, -71.7735 · click any tract to drill in

Why Morningdale scores 6.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Worcester
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Massachusetts legislature & governorship
6.2
Economic stress
57.6% poverty · this tract
10.0
Supply constraint
$713 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Worcester
6.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
7.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Worcester
7.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Worcester
7.0

How Morningdale compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Morningdale risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 6.96.9This tracttract 732001Worcester: 6.46.4Worcesterparent cityCounty: 3.63.6Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.53.5Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 96

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 139Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 12.53%Avg annual filing rate
  • 12.5%Peak (2015)
  • 139Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Morningdale. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Morningdale

The score leans hardest on economic stress at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Worcester eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Worcester County average of 6.0 and above the Massachusetts statewide average of 5.9. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 39.4% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 30.8% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 139 eviction filings here over 1 tracked years, with about 12.5% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 12.5% of renter households in 2015.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 25027732001

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 25027732001?

Census tract 25027732001 in the Morningdale neighborhood scores 6.9/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 25027732001?

Median gross rent is $713/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 41% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 25027732001?

57.6% of residents in tract 25027732001 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,829.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 25027732001?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 96th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 85th, household 99th, minority 78th, housing 87th.
Q5

Is tract 25027732001 considered part of Morningdale?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 25027732001 fall within Morningdale (neighborhood centroid within 1.0 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 25027732001?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 139 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 25027732001 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 12.53% of renter households, peaking at 12.5% in 2015. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 25027732001 struggle to pay rent?

About 39.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 30.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 25027732001 compare to Worcester overall?

Tract 25027732001 scores 6.9/10, higher than the parent city of Worcester at 6.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Worcester eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Worcester

Top eight tracts in Worcester ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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