McNichols Evergreen Eviction Risk: Elevated

32.7% of adults report being unable to pay a utility bill, against a 9.2% national figure. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. SNAP participation is 54.8% of households versus 15.2% nationally.

The severe-burden share is 33%. Those renters are past the 50% mark, and they miss rent for reasons that have nothing to do with willingness to pay. The poverty rate is 35%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

The strongest single driver of the headline number is economic stress at 8.7/10. On the softer side is supply constraint, at 1.9/10.

Running cool is rent-regulation exposure, at 2/10. At $957 a month, rents sit 11% under what the rest of Detroit commands. That places it #3 of 130 neighborhoods in Detroit.

At 22% renter-occupied, this is predominantly owner territory, and rental comps have to be drawn from further out. For a like-for-like read, Pembroke and Chandler Park score within a fraction of it.

Social vulnerability runs high at 8.4/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input. Annual rent works out to 26% of average household income of $43,750.

Because the boundary contains one tract, 6/10 is simultaneously the area figure and the address-level figure. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.