Within parent city
63
th percentile
Elevated
Census Tract · Ranked #45,786 of 84,120 nationally
White Bear Lake Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 27123040504 · Ramsey County, MN · pop 4,122 · 88% of tract blocks fall in White Bear Lake
Census tract 27123040504 covers part of White Bear Lake, MN, and scores 4.2/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 4,122. 29% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
4.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 23%
Stable renters 32%
Owners 45%
Tract context
Occupied units1,944
Renter share55.1%
SVI overall0.46
Poverty rate7.0%
Median income$74,215
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
24
th percentile
Low
Within state
54
th percentile
Moderate
National
46
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across White Bear Lake and the region
Centroid at 45.0876, -93.0402 · click any tract to drill in
Why White Bear Lake scores 4.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from White Bear Lake
7.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.3
State political climate
Minnesota legislature & governorship
4.3
Economic stress
7.0% poverty · this tract
1.7
Supply constraint
$1,668 rent vs county FMR
4.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from White Bear Lake
6.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from White Bear Lake
7.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from White Bear Lake
5.4
How White Bear Lake compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 46
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 36%Socioeconomic
- 43%Household composition
- 36%Racial/ethnic minority
- 66%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 147Total filings over 7 yrs
- 2.77%Avg annual filing rate
- 4.6%Peak (2012)
- 19Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 19% over the past 7 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 108Total filings 2020-21
- 1.4Avg monthly (observed)
- 1.7Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.84×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran below baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.0%Housing insecurity
- 4.8%Utility-shutoff threat
- 10.0%Food insecurity
- 6.2%SNAP enrollment
- 6.4%Transit barriers
- 6.2%No health insurance
- 15.2%Frequent mental distress
- 26.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in White Bear Lake
The main counterweight is economic stress at 1.7/10. It sits 1.4 points below the Ramsey County average of 5.6. On the high side, local political climate reads 7.5/10.
42% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, lower than the Ramsey County average of 47.3%. Sitting well above the midpoint, regional political climate reads 7.3/10. SNAP participation runs 6.2% against 15.2% nationally.
Court records carry 147 eviction filings across 7 observed years. Food insecurity runs 10.0% against 17.8% nationally. Filings peaked in 2012 at 4.6% of renter households.
In a typical year about 2.8% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 46th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 5.1/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 27123040504
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 27123040504?
Census tract 27123040504 in White Bear Lake scores 4.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 27123040504?
Median gross rent is $1,668/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 42% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 27123040504?
7.0% of residents in tract 27123040504 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,122.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 27123040504?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 46th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 36th, household 43th, minority 36th, housing 66th.
Q5
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 27123040504?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 147 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 27123040504 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.77% of renter households, peaking at 4.6% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6
Did eviction filings in tract 27123040504 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.84× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran modestly below normal. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Minneapolis eviction risk-Saint Paul, MN), 2020-2021.
Q7
What share of households in tract 27123040504 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 27123040504 compare to White Bear Lake overall?
Tract 27123040504 scores 4.2/10, lower than the parent city of White Bear Lake at 4.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from White Bear Lake eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in White Bear Lake
Top eight tracts in White Bear Lake ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · MN
27123040402
4.5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · MN
27123040302
4.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · MN
27123040502
4.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · MN
27123040200
4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · MN
27123040401
3.6
/ 10 · Low
Tract · MN
27123040503
3.2
/ 10 · Low
Tract · MN
27123040102
3.1
/ 10 · Low
Tract · MN
27123040301
3.1
/ 10 · Low
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