Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Census Tract · Ranked #22,681 of 84,120 nationally
Forest Lake Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 27163070103 · Washington County, MN · pop 5,598
Census tract 27163070103 covers part of Forest Lake, MN, and scores 5.6/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 5,598 residents. 67% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.
Risk score
5.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 33%
Stable renters 35%
Owners 32%
Tract context
Occupied units2,537
Renter share67.2%
SVI overall0.62
Poverty rate14.5%
Median income$71,002
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
95
th percentile
Very High
Within state
81
th percentile
High
National
73
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Forest Lake and the region
Centroid at 45.2817, -93.0013 · click any tract to drill in
Why Forest Lake scores 5.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Forest Lake
5.9
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.5
State political climate
Minnesota legislature & governorship
4.3
Economic stress
14.5% poverty · this tract
3.6
Supply constraint
$1,367 rent vs county FMR
3.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Forest Lake
6.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Forest Lake
6.2
Housing court bias
Inherited from Forest Lake
5.2
How Forest Lake compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 62
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 50%Socioeconomic
- 66%Household composition
- 40%Racial/ethnic minority
- 74%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 193Total filings over 3 yrs
- 5.84%Avg annual filing rate
- 6.8%Peak (2010)
- 55Filings in 2012 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.8%Housing insecurity
- 6.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 13.7%Food insecurity
- 9.9%SNAP enrollment
- 8.4%Transit barriers
- 8.7%No health insurance
- 17.3%Frequent mental distress
- 29.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Forest Lake
Severe burden reaches 19%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Against the Washington County average of 4.1, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.5 points. The clearest offset is supply constraint at 3.1/10.
The filing record is not thin: 193 evictions over 3 years of observation. Cost burden runs 49% here against 44.0% across Washington County. Filings peaked in 2010 at 6.8% of renter households.
In a typical year about 5.8% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 73rd percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 6.6/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the MN average is 4.5, so this tract runs 1.1 points hotter. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.
Average gross rent is $1,367, close to the Forest Lake average.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 27163070103
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 27163070103?
Census tract 27163070103 in Forest Lake scores 5.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 27163070103?
Median gross rent is $1,367/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 49% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 27163070103?
14.5% of residents in tract 27163070103 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,598.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 27163070103?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 62th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 50th, household 66th, minority 40th, housing 74th.
Q5
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 27163070103?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 193 eviction filings across 3 validated years in tract 27163070103 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 5.84% of renter households, peaking at 6.8% in 2010. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6
What share of households in tract 27163070103 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 27163070103 compare to Forest Lake overall?
Tract 27163070103 scores 5.6/10, higher than the parent city of Forest Lake at 4.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Forest Lake eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Forest Lake
Top eight tracts in Forest Lake ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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