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Census Tract · Ranked #32,842 of 84,120 nationally

Forest Lake Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 27163070104 · Washington County, MN · pop 3,235

With a score of 5/10, tract 27163070104 in Forest Lake, MN reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 3,235 residents. Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1/10.

Risk score
5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 4% Stable renters 9% Owners 87%
Tract context
Occupied units1,256
Renter share13.1%
SVI overall0.48
Poverty rate3.5%
Median income$72,604

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within parent city
75 th percentile
Rank, 75th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 5 tracts In Forest Lake
High
Within county
83 th percentile
Rank, 83rd percentileLowHigh
#11 of 59 tracts In Washington County
High
Within state
70 th percentile
Rank, 70th percentileLowHigh
#457 of 1,502 tracts In Minnesota
Elevated
National
61 th percentile
Rank, 61st percentileLowHigh
#32,842 of 84,120 tracts In U.S.
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Forest Lake and the region

Centroid at 45.2686, -92.9664 · click any tract to drill in

Why Forest Lake scores 5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Forest Lake
5.9
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.5
State political climate
Minnesota legislature & governorship
4.3
Economic stress
3.5% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$1,064 rent vs county FMR
1.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Forest Lake
6.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Forest Lake
6.2
Housing court bias
Inherited from Forest Lake
5.2

How Forest Lake compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Forest Lake risk score vs. parent city / county / state5.0This tracttract 0701044.2Forest Lakeparent city4.1Countyavg tract in county4.5Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 48

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 31Total filings over 3 yrs
  • 2.97%Avg annual filing rate
  • 4.3%Peak (2010)
  • 11Filings in 2012 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2010 to 2012
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 27163070104
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Forest Lake

Cost burden runs around a third here against 44.0% across Washington County. Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 1.3/10.

At $1,064 a month, rents run 25% under what the rest of Forest Lake commands. It sits 0.9 points above the Washington County average of 4.1. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 31 filings here across 3 tracked years.

The worst year on record was 2010, when 4.3% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 3.0% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 61% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

Only 13% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 5.3/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Against average income of $72,604, annual rent is just 18%. Poverty sits at 3%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 27163070104

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 27163070104?

Census tract 27163070104 in Forest Lake scores 5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 27163070104?

Median gross rent is $1,064/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 32% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 27163070104?

3.5% of residents in tract 27163070104 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,235.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 27163070104?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 48th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 53th, household 65th, minority 31th, housing 34th.
Q5

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 27163070104?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 31 eviction filings across 3 validated years in tract 27163070104 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.97% of renter households, peaking at 4.3% in 2010. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6

What share of households in tract 27163070104 struggle to pay rent?

About 9.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 27163070104 compare to Forest Lake overall?

Tract 27163070104 scores 5/10, higher than the parent city of Forest Lake at 4.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Forest Lake eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Forest Lake

Top eight tracts in Forest Lake ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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