Neighborhood · Ranked #3,082 of 84,120 nationally

Fruit Belt Eviction Risk: High , Buffalo

Tract 36029003501 · Erie County, NY · pop 1,503 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi

36029003501 is a census tract in the Fruit Belt area of Buffalo, NY. It scores 9.3/10 for landlords. It is home to 1,503 residents. The severe-burden share is 58%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score

9.3

High

Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 39% Stable renters 19% Owners 42%

Tract context

Occupied units641

Renter share57.9%

SVI overall0.96

Poverty rate44.1%

Median income$23,451

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Buffalo and the region

Centroid at 42.9088, -78.8295 · click any tract to drill in

Why Fruit Belt scores 9.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Buffalo

8.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.7

State political climate

New York legislature & governorship

7.3

Economic stress

44.1% poverty · this tract

10.0

Supply constraint

$877 rent vs county FMR

2.5

Rent control risk

Inherited from Buffalo

7.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

8.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Buffalo

7.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Buffalo

7.5

How Fruit Belt compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 96

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

87%Socioeconomic
97%Household composition
98%Racial/ethnic minority
85%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
83%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Fruit Belt. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

37.2%Housing insecurity
29.0%Utility-shutoff threat
47.6%Food insecurity
53.5%SNAP enrollment
24.4%Transit barriers
12.7%No health insurance
21.9%Frequent mental distress
38.4%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Fruit Belt

Cost burden runs around two-thirds here against 44.6% across Erie County. The score leans hardest on economic stress at 10/10.

Food insecurity runs 47.6% against 17.8% nationally. The poverty rate is 44%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Housing insecurity runs 37.2% against 14.2% nationally.

Annualized rent equals 45% of average household income of $23,451, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. Against the Erie County average of 6.8, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.5 points. On the high side, local political climate reads 8/10.

Sitting well above the midpoint, eviction-process difficulty reads 8/10. Average gross rent is $877, 16% below the Buffalo average. This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Buffalo. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.

Nationally it ranks #3,082 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 36029003501

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 36029003501?

Census tract 36029003501 in the Fruit Belt neighborhood scores 9.3/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 36029003501?

Median gross rent is $877/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 67% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 36029003501?

44.1% of residents in tract 36029003501 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,503.

How socially vulnerable is tract 36029003501?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 96th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 87th, household 97th, minority 98th, housing 85th.

Is tract 36029003501 considered part of Fruit Belt?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 36029003501 fall within Fruit Belt (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 36029003501 struggle to pay rent?

About 37.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 29.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 36029003501 compare to Buffalo overall?

Tract 36029003501 scores 9.3/10, higher than the parent city of Buffalo at 7.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Buffalo eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 36029003501 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Buffalo

Top eight tracts in Buffalo ranked by composite eviction-risk score.