Fruit Belt Eviction Risk: High , Buffalo

The severe-burden share is 26%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Annualized rent equals 37% of average household income of $29,494, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

What pushes it up most is local political climate at 8/10. The poverty rate is 28%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

Running hot, eviction-process difficulty reads 8/10. Housing insecurity runs 27.7% against 14.2% nationally. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 19.5% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

On the high side, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.5/10. Against Erie County at 44.6%, 40% of renters here are cost-burdened.

Average gross rent is $911, 13% below the Buffalo average. This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Buffalo. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. Nationally it ranks #3,082 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 9/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.