Neighborhood · Ranked #550 of 84,120 nationally

Fruit Belt Eviction Risk: High , Buffalo

Tract 36029002703 · Erie County, NY · pop 1,504 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi

Census tract 36029002703 covers Fruit Belt in Buffalo, home to 1,504 residents. For landlords it grades 7.3/10, an elevated reading. It lands near the 97th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 57% of renter households, a severe level, and 41% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is about $682 a month. Renters make up 80% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

8.9

High

Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 46% Stable renters 35% Owners 19%

Tract context

Occupied units539

Renter share80.3%

SVI overall0.95

Poverty rate66.5%

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Buffalo and the region

Centroid at 42.8988, -78.8371 · click any tract to drill in

Why Fruit Belt scores 8.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Buffalo

8.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.7

State political climate

New York legislature & governorship

7.3

Economic stress

66.5% poverty · this tract

10.0

Supply constraint

$682 rent vs county FMR

1.0

Rent control risk

Inherited from Buffalo

7.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

8.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Buffalo

7.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Buffalo

7.5

How Fruit Belt compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 95

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

78%Socioeconomic
98%Household composition
92%Racial/ethnic minority
90%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
84%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Fruit Belt. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

37.9%Housing insecurity
30.2%Utility-shutoff threat
57.1%Food insecurity
61.9%SNAP enrollment
28.6%Transit barriers
15.0%No health insurance
22.1%Frequent mental distress
43.5%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Fruit Belt

The score leans hardest on economic stress at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Buffalo eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Erie County average of 6.1 and above the New York statewide average of 6.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

HOLC surveyors mapped this tract in the 1930s with a dominant grade of C ("Declining"), above the redlined D tier. The grading still shaped decades of lending and development in the surrounding area.

The tract is Asian and Black and ranks around the 95th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 36029002703

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 36029002703?

Census tract 36029002703 in the Fruit Belt neighborhood scores 8.9/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 36029002703?

Median gross rent is $682/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 36029002703?

66.5% of residents in tract 36029002703 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,504.

How socially vulnerable is tract 36029002703?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 95th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 78th, household 98th, minority 92th, housing 90th.

Is tract 36029002703 considered part of Fruit Belt?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 36029002703 fall within Fruit Belt (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 36029002703 struggle to pay rent?

About 37.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 30.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 36029002703 compare to Buffalo overall?

Tract 36029002703 scores 8.9/10, lower than the parent city of Buffalo at 9.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Buffalo eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 36029002703 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Buffalo

Top eight tracts in Buffalo ranked by composite eviction-risk score.