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Neighborhood · Ranked #3,082 of 84,120 nationally

Kensington Eviction Risk: High , Buffalo

Tract 36029004200 · Erie County, NY · pop 3,784 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

Tract 36029004200 sits in the Kensington area of Buffalo eviction risk, NY, carrying an eviction-risk score of 9.3/10. The severe-burden share is 40%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score
9.3
High
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 28% Stable renters 22% Owners 50%
Tract context
Occupied units1,398
Renter share49.9%
SVI overall0.83
Poverty rate45.3%
Median income$44,451

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#6 of 11 tracts In Kensington
Moderate
Within parent city
41 th percentile
Rank, 41st percentileLowHigh
#54 of 91 tracts In Buffalo
Moderate
Within county
95 th percentile
Rank, 95th percentileLowHigh
#13 of 260 tracts In Erie County
Very High
Within state
72 th percentile
Rank, 72nd percentileLowHigh
#1,493 of 5,394 tracts In New York
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Buffalo and the region

Centroid at 42.9353, -78.8186 · click any tract to drill in

Why Kensington scores 9.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Buffalo
8.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.7
State political climate
New York legislature & governorship
7.3
Economic stress
45.3% poverty · this tract
10.0
Supply constraint
$1,057 rent vs county FMR
4.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Buffalo
7.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
8.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Buffalo
7.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Buffalo
7.5

How Kensington compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Kensington risk score vs. parent city / county / state9.3This tracttract 0042007.9Buffaloparent city6.8Countyavg tract in county7.7Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 83

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Kensington. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Kensington

The dominant input is economic stress at 10/10. SNAP participation runs 51.4% against 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity runs 45.1% against 17.8% nationally.

The poverty rate is 45%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. It sits 2.5 points above the Erie County average of 6.8.

Cost burden runs 57% here against 44.6% across Erie County. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 8/10.

On the high side, eviction-process difficulty reads 8/10. This ground was mapped B ("Still Desirable") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Buffalo. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.

On the national scale it lands near the 96th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 8.5/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 36029004200

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 36029004200?

Census tract 36029004200 in the Kensington neighborhood scores 9.3/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 36029004200?

Median gross rent is $1,057/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 36029004200?

45.3% of residents in tract 36029004200 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,784.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 36029004200?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 83th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 83th, household 99th, minority 97th, housing 23th.
Q5

Is tract 36029004200 considered part of Kensington?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 36029004200 fall within Kensington (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 36029004200 struggle to pay rent?

About 35.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 27.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 36029004200 compare to Buffalo overall?

Tract 36029004200 scores 9.3/10, higher than the parent city of Buffalo at 7.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Buffalo eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8

Was tract 36029004200 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Buffalo

Top eight tracts in Buffalo ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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