Kensington Eviction Risk: High , Buffalo

Average gross rent is $565, 46% below the Buffalo average. SNAP participation runs 70.3% against 15.2% nationally. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 39.6% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

The poverty rate is 46%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. It sits 2.5 points above the Erie County average of 6.8. 87% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.

On the softer side, supply constraint reads 1/10. The severe-burden share is 17%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Running hot, local political climate reads 8/10. Against Erie County at 44.6%, 51% of renters here are cost-burdened.

This ground was mapped B ("Still Desirable") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Buffalo. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. On the national scale it lands near the 96th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 9.2/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.