Theatre District Eviction Risk: High , Buffalo

It sits 2.4 points above the Erie County average of 6.8. This is renter territory: 90% of occupied units are tenant-occupied.

The dominant input is local political climate at 8/10. The voucher gap is 24.4%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.

On the high side, eviction-process difficulty reads 8/10. The poverty rate is 24%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.5/10.

Severe burden reaches 11%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Buffalo. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. Nationally it ranks #3,529 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 6.3/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the NY average is 7.7, so this tract runs 1.5 points hotter.

Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.