Larkinville Eviction Risk: High , Buffalo

Against the Erie County average of 6.8, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.5 points. Set annual rent against average income of $22,619 and the ratio lands at 41%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. What pushes it up most is economic stress at 8.8/10.

82% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. The poverty rate is 35%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest.

The severe-burden share is 23%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Running cool, supply constraint reads 1.6/10.

At $777 a month, rents run 26% under what the rest of Buffalo commands. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 8/10.

Disability prevalence runs 44.0% against 31.5% nationally. This ground was mapped D ("Hazardous") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Buffalo. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.