Within parent city
20
th percentile
Low
Census Tract · Ranked #14,308 of 84,120 nationally
Shirley Eviction Risk: Elevated
Tract 36103159514 · Suffolk County, NY · pop 2,894
With a score of 6.7/10, tract 36103159514 in Shirley, NY reads elevated for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 2,894 residents. 90% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
6.7
Elevated
Confidence 70% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 11%
Stable renters 1%
Owners 88%
Tract context
Occupied units1,046
Renter share12.0%
SVI overall0.23
Poverty rate11.3%
Median income$137,292
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
70
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
35
th percentile
Low
National
83
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Shirley and the region
Centroid at 40.7756, -72.8833 · click any tract to drill in
Why Shirley scores 6.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Shirley
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.0
State political climate
New York legislature & governorship
7.3
Economic stress
11.3% poverty · this tract
2.8
Supply constraint
tract rent vs county FMR
5.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Shirley
9.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Shirley
2.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from Shirley
7.0
How Shirley compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 23
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 9%Socioeconomic
- 24%Household composition
- 56%Racial/ethnic minority
- 52%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 16.4%Housing insecurity
- 10.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 19.7%Food insecurity
- 18.3%SNAP enrollment
- 10.0%Transit barriers
- 8.4%No health insurance
- 17.9%Frequent mental distress
- 30.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Shirley
90% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, far above the Suffolk County average of 51.3%. The dominant input is rent-regulation exposure at 9.6/10. On the high side, state political climate reads 7.3/10.
Well under the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 2.7/10. That is riskier than roughly 83% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Only 12% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 3.1/10. Statewide the NY average is 7.7, so this tract runs 1.0 points cooler. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured.
It tracks the Suffolk County average of 6.3 closely.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 36103159514
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 36103159514?
Census tract 36103159514 in Shirley scores 6.7/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the poverty rate in tract 36103159514?
11.3% of residents in tract 36103159514 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,894.
Q3
How socially vulnerable is tract 36103159514?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 23th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 9th, household 24th, minority 56th, housing 52th.
Q4
What share of households in tract 36103159514 struggle to pay rent?
About 16.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q5
How does tract 36103159514 compare to Shirley overall?
Tract 36103159514 scores 6.7/10, right in line with the parent city of Shirley at 6.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Shirley eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Shirley
Top eight tracts in Shirley ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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