Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Census Tract · Ranked #8,653 of 84,120 nationally
Shirley Eviction Risk: Elevated
Tract 36103159518 · Suffolk County, NY · pop 4,787 · 79% of tract blocks fall in Shirley
36103159518 is a census tract in Shirley, NY. It scores 7.9/10 for landlords. Population here is 4,787. The severe-burden share is 45%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
7.9
Elevated
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 9%
Stable renters 2%
Owners 89%
Tract context
Occupied units1,615
Renter share11.6%
SVI overall0.55
Poverty rate17.2%
Median income$84,455
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
89
th percentile
High
Within state
44
th percentile
Moderate
National
90
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Shirley and the region
Centroid at 40.7633, -72.8605 · click any tract to drill in
Why Shirley scores 7.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Shirley
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.0
State political climate
New York legislature & governorship
7.3
Economic stress
17.2% poverty · this tract
4.3
Supply constraint
$2,185 rent vs county FMR
3.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Shirley
9.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Shirley
2.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from Shirley
7.0
How Shirley compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 55
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 73%Socioeconomic
- 42%Household composition
- 63%Racial/ethnic minority
- 26%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 18.9%Housing insecurity
- 11.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 23.2%Food insecurity
- 20.9%SNAP enrollment
- 11.3%Transit barriers
- 10.8%No health insurance
- 18.4%Frequent mental distress
- 33.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Shirley
Cost burden runs 80% here against 51.3% across Suffolk County. The score leans hardest on rent-regulation exposure at 9.6/10.
Against the Suffolk County average of 6.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.6 points. Running hot, state political climate reads 7.3/10.
Running cool, tenant-organizing strength reads 2.7/10. Nationally it ranks #8,653 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
At 12% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. Social vulnerability reads 5.9/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Average gross rent is $2,185, close to the Shirley average.
Annual rent works out to 31% of average household income of $84,455.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 36103159518
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 36103159518?
Census tract 36103159518 in Shirley scores 7.9/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 36103159518?
Median gross rent is $2,185/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 80% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 36103159518?
17.2% of residents in tract 36103159518 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,787.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 36103159518?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 55th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 73th, household 42th, minority 63th, housing 26th.
Q5
What share of households in tract 36103159518 struggle to pay rent?
About 18.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 11.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q6
How does tract 36103159518 compare to Shirley overall?
Tract 36103159518 scores 7.9/10, higher than the parent city of Shirley at 6.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Shirley eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Shirley
Top eight tracts in Shirley ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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