Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #39,308 of 84,120 nationally
Downtown Lorain Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 39093022500 · Lorain County, OH · pop 1,771 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi
Tract 39093022500 sits in the Downtown Lorain area of Lorain eviction risk, OH, carrying an eviction-risk score of 4.6/10. Population here is 1,771. The score leans hardest on tenant-organizing strength at 8.6/10.
Risk score
4.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 7%
Stable renters 12%
Owners 81%
Tract context
Occupied units791
Renter share18.8%
SVI overall0.24
Poverty rate10.1%
Median income$66,144
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
10
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
62
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
64
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Lorain and the region
Centroid at 41.4606, -82.1945 · click any tract to drill in
Why Downtown Lorain scores 4.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Lorain
5.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.9
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
10.1% poverty · this tract
2.5
Supply constraint
$1,119 rent vs county FMR
4.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lorain
7.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lorain
8.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lorain
8.0
How Downtown Lorain compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 24
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 43%Socioeconomic
- 72%Household composition
- 28%Racial/ethnic minority
- 4%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 60%Grade B
- 1%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 43Total filings over 11 yrs
- 4.58%Avg annual filing rate
- 7.8%Peak (2012)
- 4Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 300% over the past 11 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Downtown Lorain. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.1%Housing insecurity
- 8.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 14.5%Food insecurity
- 11.4%SNAP enrollment
- 7.7%Transit barriers
- 9.5%No health insurance
- 17.4%Frequent mental distress
- 30.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Downtown Lorain
Average gross rent is $1,119, 26% above the Lorain average. Sitting well above the midpoint, housing-court posture reads 8/10.
On the softer side, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.1/10. The filing record is not thin: 43 evictions over 11 years of observation. Filings peaked in 2012 at 7.8% of renter households.
In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground B ("Still Desirable"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. In a typical year about 4.6% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 53% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
At 19% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. Social vulnerability reads 3.2/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured.
39% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 39093022500
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39093022500?
Census tract 39093022500 in the Downtown Lorain neighborhood scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 39093022500?
Median gross rent is $1,119/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 39% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 39093022500?
10.1% of residents in tract 39093022500 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,771.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 39093022500?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 24th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 43th, household 72th, minority 28th, housing 4th.
Q5
Is tract 39093022500 considered part of Downtown Lorain?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39093022500 fall within Downtown Lorain (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39093022500?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 43 eviction filings across 11 validated years in tract 39093022500 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.58% of renter households, peaking at 7.8% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 39093022500 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 39093022500 compare to Lorain overall?
Tract 39093022500 scores 4.6/10, right in line with the parent city of Lorain at 4.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lorain eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 39093022500 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Lorain
Top eight tracts in Lorain ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · OH
Downtown Lorain
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
South Lorain
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Pearl Village
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Evergreen Village
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
HarborWalk
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Downtown Lorain
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Downtown Lorain
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Evergreen Village
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
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