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Neighborhood · Ranked #11,930 of 84,120 nationally

Northriver Eviction Risk: Elevated , Toledo

Tract 39095001202 · Lucas County, OH · pop 2,869 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi

Census tract 39095001202 sits in the Northriver neighborhood of Toledo eviction risk, Ohio eviction laws, and carries an eviction-risk score of 5.3/10. That is riskier than about 49% of US census tracts.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 18% of renter households, a modest level, and 9% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $321 a month against an average household income of $25,768 a year, roughly 15% of income at the averages. About 80% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
6
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 15% Stable renters 65% Owners 20%
Tract context
Occupied units853
Renter share80.0%
SVI overall0.86
Poverty rate37.7%
Median income$25,768

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Northriver
Very High
Within parent city
99 th percentile
Rank, 99th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 121 tracts In Toledo
Very High
Within county
98 th percentile
Rank, 98th percentileLowHigh
#5 of 168 tracts In Lucas County
Very High
Within state
97 th percentile
Rank, 97th percentileLowHigh
#93 of 3,162 tracts In Ohio
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Toledo and the region

Centroid at 41.6809, -83.5000 · click any tract to drill in

Why Northriver scores 6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Toledo
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.8
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
37.7% poverty · this tract
9.4
Supply constraint
$321 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Toledo
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Toledo
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Toledo
4.0

How Northriver compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Northriver risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 6.06.0This tracttract 001202Toledo: 3.33.3Toledoparent cityCounty: 4.14.1Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.73.7Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 86

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 1,270Total filings over 15 yrs
  • 15.74%Avg annual filing rate
  • 19.3%Peak (2006)
  • 70Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2003 to 2018
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 390950012022003: 77 filings (14.71/100 renter HHs)2004: 71 filings (13.57/100 renter HHs)2005: 76 filings (13.86/100 renter HHs)2006: 106 filings (19.33/100 renter HHs)2007: 68 filings (12.40/100 renter HHs)2008: 64 filings (11.67/100 renter HHs)2009: 85 filings (15.50/100 renter HHs)2010: 92 filings (16.00/100 renter HHs)2011: 96 filings (18.18/100 renter HHs)2012: 95 filings (17.99/100 renter HHs)2013: 102 filings (19.32/100 renter HHs)2014: 88 filings (16.67/100 renter HHs)2015: 86 filings (16.29/100 renter HHs)2016: 94 filings (17.57/100 renter HHs)2018: 70 filings (13.08/100 renter HHs)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 15 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Northriver. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Northriver

What moves this score most is economic stress at 9.4/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Toledo eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Lucas County average of 5.5 and in line with the Ohio statewide average of 5.1. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

The tract is Black and White and ranks around the 86th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

Part of this tract, about 27% of its area, sat in the redlined grade-D zone on 1930s HOLC maps, though its dominant grade was C ("Declining"). That lending history still correlates with present-day rent burden.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 39095001202

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39095001202?

Census tract 39095001202 in the Northriver neighborhood scores 6/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 39095001202?

Median gross rent is $321/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 18% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 39095001202?

37.7% of residents in tract 39095001202 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,869.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 39095001202?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 86th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 77th, household 48th, minority 82th, housing 96th.
Q5

Is tract 39095001202 considered part of Northriver?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39095001202 fall within Northriver (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39095001202?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,270 eviction filings across 15 validated years in tract 39095001202 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 15.74% of renter households, peaking at 19.3% in 2006. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 39095001202 struggle to pay rent?

About 40.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 35.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 39095001202 compare to Toledo overall?

Tract 39095001202 scores 6/10, higher than the parent city of Toledo at 3.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Toledo eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9

Was tract 39095001202 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 27% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Toledo

Top eight tracts in Toledo ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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