Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #14,316 of 84,120 nationally
Old Orchard Eviction Risk: Moderate , Toledo
Tract 39095001302 · Lucas County, OH · pop 2,011 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
Eviction risk in Old Orchard in Toledo centers on tract 39095001302, which scores 6.2/10 (Elevated tier) and is home to 2,011 residents. On the national scale it ranks #17,127 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
About 51% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 21% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $939 monthly, set against $31,152 in average yearly household income, roughly 36% of income at the averages. About 94% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
5.8
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 48%
Stable renters 46%
Owners 6%
Tract context
Occupied units1,129
Renter share94.2%
SVI overall0.75
Poverty rate31.1%
Median income$31,152
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
91
th percentile
Very High
Within county
95
th percentile
Very High
Within state
93
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Toledo and the region
Centroid at 41.6714, -83.6092 · click any tract to drill in
Why Old Orchard scores 5.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Toledo
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.8
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
31.1% poverty · this tract
7.8
Supply constraint
$939 rent vs county FMR
3.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Toledo
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Toledo
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Toledo
4.0
How Old Orchard compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 75
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 88%Socioeconomic
- 21%Household composition
- 60%Racial/ethnic minority
- 77%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 11%Grade A
- 23%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 2,099Total filings over 15 yrs
- 14.94%Avg annual filing rate
- 24.2%Peak (2014)
- 160Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 176% over the past 15 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Old Orchard. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 19.5%Housing insecurity
- 15.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 26.6%Food insecurity
- 24.7%SNAP enrollment
- 15.2%Transit barriers
- 10.4%No health insurance
- 22.8%Frequent mental distress
- 35.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Old Orchard
The heaviest input here is economic stress at 7.8/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Toledo eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Lucas County average of 5.5 and above the Ohio statewide average of 5.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
HOLC surveyors mapped this tract in the 1930s with a dominant grade of B ("Still Desirable"), above the redlined D tier. The grading still shaped decades of lending and development in the surrounding area.
In CDC survey modeling, about 19.5% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 15.6% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 39095001302
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39095001302?
Census tract 39095001302 in the Old Orchard neighborhood scores 5.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 39095001302?
Median gross rent is $939/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 51% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 39095001302?
31.1% of residents in tract 39095001302 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,011.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 39095001302?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 75th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 88th, household 21th, minority 60th, housing 77th.
Q5
Is tract 39095001302 considered part of Old Orchard?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39095001302 fall within Old Orchard (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39095001302?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 2,099 eviction filings across 15 validated years in tract 39095001302 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 14.94% of renter households, peaking at 24.2% in 2014. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 39095001302 struggle to pay rent?
About 19.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 15.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 39095001302 compare to Toledo overall?
Tract 39095001302 scores 5.8/10, higher than the parent city of Toledo at 3.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Toledo eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 39095001302 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Toledo
Top eight tracts in Toledo ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · OH
Northriver
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
East Toledo
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
McComas Village
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Warren-Sherman
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Birckhead Place
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Northlawn
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Bush Street Historic District
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Heather Downs
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
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