Neighborhood · Ranked #13,119 of 84,120 nationally

Northlawn Eviction Risk: Moderate , Toledo

Tract 39095001002 · Lucas County, OH · pop 2,480 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

Landlord eviction risk in census tract 39095001002 (the Northlawn neighborhood of Toledo, Ohio) comes in at 6.5/10, the Elevated tier. That is riskier than about 86% of US census tracts.

About 56% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 47% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $997 a month against an average household income of $27,610 a year, roughly 43% of income at the averages. Renters make up 37% of occupied homes.

Risk score

5.9

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 21% Stable renters 16% Owners 63%

Tract context

Occupied units949

Renter share37.1%

SVI overall0.75

Poverty rate46.5%

Median income$27,610

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Toledo and the region

Centroid at 41.6856, -83.5340 · click any tract to drill in

Why Northlawn scores 5.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Toledo

5.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.8

State political climate

Ohio legislature & governorship

2.4

Economic stress

46.5% poverty · this tract

10.0

Supply constraint

$997 rent vs county FMR

4.4

Rent control risk

Inherited from Toledo

1.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

4.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Toledo

4.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Toledo

4.0

How Northlawn compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 75

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

82%Socioeconomic
96%Household composition
82%Racial/ethnic minority
15%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
9%Grade B
63%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Northlawn. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

32.5%Housing insecurity
27.8%Utility-shutoff threat
44.4%Food insecurity
47.7%SNAP enrollment
22.1%Transit barriers
16.1%No health insurance
23.3%Frequent mental distress
45.9%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Northlawn

The score leans hardest on economic stress at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Toledo eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Lucas County average of 5.5 and above the Ohio statewide average of 5.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

HOLC surveyors mapped this tract in the 1930s with a dominant grade of C ("Declining"), above the redlined D tier. The grading still shaped decades of lending and development in the surrounding area.

In CDC survey modeling, about 32.5% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 27.8% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 39095001002

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39095001002?

Census tract 39095001002 in the Northlawn neighborhood scores 5.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 39095001002?

Median gross rent is $997/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 56% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 39095001002?

46.5% of residents in tract 39095001002 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,480.

How socially vulnerable is tract 39095001002?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 75th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 82th, household 96th, minority 82th, housing 15th.

Is tract 39095001002 considered part of Northlawn?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39095001002 fall within Northlawn (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 39095001002 struggle to pay rent?

About 32.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 27.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 39095001002 compare to Toledo overall?

Tract 39095001002 scores 5.9/10, higher than the parent city of Toledo at 3.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Toledo eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 39095001002 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Toledo

Top eight tracts in Toledo ranked by composite eviction-risk score.