Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #24,859 of 84,120 nationally
Bush Street Historic District Eviction Risk: Moderate , Toledo
Tract 39095003000 · Lucas County, OH · pop 2,005 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
Tract 39095003000 sits in the Bush Street Historic District area of Toledo eviction risk, OH, carrying an eviction-risk score of 5.4/10. The score leans hardest on economic stress at 10/10.
Risk score
5.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 33%
Stable renters 28%
Owners 39%
Tract context
Occupied units873
Renter share61.1%
SVI overall0.98
Poverty rate62.5%
Median income$17,634
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
72
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
92
th percentile
Very High
Within state
83
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Toledo and the region
Centroid at 41.6635, -83.5212 · click any tract to drill in
Why Bush Street Historic District scores 5.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Toledo
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.8
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
62.5% poverty · this tract
10.0
Supply constraint
$464 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Toledo
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Toledo
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Toledo
4.0
How Bush Street Historic District compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 98
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 97%Socioeconomic
- 97%Household composition
- 74%Racial/ethnic minority
- 87%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 53%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 1,152Total filings over 15 yrs
- 12.17%Avg annual filing rate
- 16.5%Peak (2013)
- 58Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 33% over the past 15 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Bush Street Historic District. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 34.4%Housing insecurity
- 30.9%Utility-shutoff threat
- 50.4%Food insecurity
- 56.3%SNAP enrollment
- 25.8%Transit barriers
- 20.4%No health insurance
- 25.3%Frequent mental distress
- 51.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Bush Street Historic District
At $464 a month, rents run 49% under what the rest of Toledo commands. Food insecurity runs 50.4% against 17.8% nationally. The poverty rate is 62%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.
Cost burden runs 55% here against 41.3% across Lucas County. Housing insecurity runs 34.4% against 14.2% nationally. Severe burden reaches 25%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 1/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10. It sits 1.2 points above the Lucas County average of 4.2.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 1,152 filings here across 15 tracked years. Filings peaked in 2013 at 16.5% of renter households.
In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. In a typical year about 12.2% of renter households face a filing.
On the national scale it lands near the 70th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 39095003000
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39095003000?
Census tract 39095003000 in the Bush Street Historic District neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 39095003000?
Median gross rent is $464/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 55% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 39095003000?
62.5% of residents in tract 39095003000 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,005.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 39095003000?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 98th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 97th, household 97th, minority 74th, housing 87th.
Q5
Is tract 39095003000 considered part of Bush Street Historic District?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39095003000 fall within Bush Street Historic District (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39095003000?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,152 eviction filings across 15 validated years in tract 39095003000 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 12.17% of renter households, peaking at 16.5% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 39095003000 struggle to pay rent?
About 34.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 30.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 39095003000 compare to Toledo overall?
Tract 39095003000 scores 5.4/10, higher than the parent city of Toledo at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Toledo eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 39095003000 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Toledo
Top eight tracts in Toledo ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · OH
Downtown
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Inverness Village
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Birmingham
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Old Orchard
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Scott Park
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Vistula Historic District
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
East Toledo
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
United
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
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